Mexico fell from position 12 in 2021 to 13 in 2022 among the world’s largest exporters of products, the World Trade Organization (WTO) reported.
The change occurred because the United Arab Emirates, benefiting mainly from oil prices, went from 17th to 11th place in those same years.
The rise in Covid-19 infections had a major impact on the Chinese economy in the fourth quarter, where GDP growth slowed to 0% and exports fell 6.5%.
From the WTO’s perspective, this decline could be reversed to China’s advantage in 2023, now that pandemic controls have been relaxed.
The relaxation of these measures is expected to release pent-up consumer demand in China, which could boost international trade, especially in travel-related services.
Among the largest merchandise exporters in 2022, China reported an increase of 7% year-on-year, to 3 trillion 594,000 million dollars; while the United States, in second position, achieved an increase of 18%, to 2 trillion 065,000 million dollars.
On the contrary, among the largest importers of goods, the United States had an advance of 15% at an annual rate, to 3 trillion 376,000 million dollars; while China registered an increase of only 1%, to 2 trillion 716,000 million dollars.
Mexico remained in the 12th place among the largest importers of products in the world.
However, in both indicators, Mexico achieved an increase in relative terms. Its exports in 2022 represented 2.3% of the world total compared to 2.2% a year earlier.
Regarding its imports, these went from a coverage of 2.3 to 2.4% in the total of global international purchases.
Thus, Mexico’s exports rose 17% to 578,000 million dollars and its imports were 626,000 million dollars.
According to the WTO, reversing the course of low interest rates was never going to be easy, and the road ahead is likely to be bumpy.
The recent bank failures in the United States and Europe highlight the potential existence of new vulnerabilities stemming from a change in the interest rate environment.
“Upside inflation surprises could increase the prospects for rate hikes, but they would carry the risk of broader financial contagion that would reduce output and trade. Governments and regulators need to be vigilant about these and other financial risks in the coming months,” he said.
Improve forecast
WTO economists project merchandise trade volume growth of 1.7% in 2023, up from last October’s estimate of 1.0%, accompanied by real GDP growth of 2.4% at market exchange rates.
In addition, the WTO expects trade and output growth rates this year to be below their respective averages of 2.6 and 2.7% over the 12 years since the trade collapse that followed the global financial crisis.
Trade growth should recover to 3.2% in 2024, as GDP growth rises to 2.6%, according to WTO forecasts.
