In 2021, the western military alliance had registered 290 cases of this type. Most of the operations in 2022 would have taken place over the Baltic Sea, the unnamed NATO official told RND. As a rule, the Russian aircraft could be pushed aside and escalations avoided: “The vast majority of the air encounters were safe and professional.”
In some cases, however, Russian military aircraft had carried out “risky manoeuvres” in the vicinity of “unarmed Allied reconnaissance aircraft”, and in November Russian military aircraft “unsafely flew over” NATO ships on a routine patrol in the Baltic Sea. Concerns about such incidents have been diplomatically expressed, it said.
Incidents in January and February
At the end of January 2023, the German Air Force intercepted a Russian military aircraft over the Baltic Sea. “Our QRA has identified an Ilyushin-20 (COOT-A) over the Baltic Sea,” a statement said on Twitter. During the flight, the machine changed the flight direction several times: “A clear behavior was not foreseeable. We accompanied the plane and then flew back to Laage.”
At the beginning of February there were eight alarms in a single week around Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania because of Sukhoi Su-27 and Su-30 fighter jets and Ilyushin Il-76 military transporters. Some of these flights could well be described as “provocation”, writes the RND. Incidents on Poland’s eastern border and the Black Sea also made it seem as if the Russian crews didn’t care that they were about to overfly the territory of sovereign nations, RND said.
Anomalies on some flights
It is also noticeable that the Russian crews did not announce a flight plan in advance, although this is considered the international standard. During the flight, they also did not contact the responsible regional aviation security authority and therefore gave no information about the origin and destination.
Some Russian crews even switched off their transponders when approaching NATO countries, which is also considered unusual. Normally, the transponders in aircraft continuously provide digital information about the origin and identity of the aircraft.
“Infinite Test of Spirit” intended
In the end, the incidents were always the same: Western combat aircraft took off, NATO crews clarified the identity and nationality of the machines without a doubt and forwarded the data to their operations centers. The Russian machines were then always turned off.
The meaning of the “Russian provocations” is not clear even to experts. The RND quoted NATO sources as saying that “a kind of ongoing test, an endless test of nerves” is being sought. A similar scenario is currently playing out in Taiwan, for example: China is sending fighter jets into Taiwan’s air defense zone on a daily basis in order to tire Taiwan’s air force and also achieve material wear and tear.
Tensions have increased since the Ukraine war
Since the Russian attack on Ukraine and the associated tensions with NATO, the number of military encounters with Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea has increased, said Ingo Gerhartz, Inspector General of the German Air Force, back in August. “Yes, we definitely notice that: we have more incidents, as we call them,” he told ZDF. Russian jets approached NATO airspace and were then escorted by NATO aircraft.
Russian flight maneuvers in international airspace are “completely fine”. At the same time, it was signaled that NATO airspace was a “red line” that Russian aircraft were not allowed to cross. With regard to the war in Ukraine, NATO said it wanted to remain “vigilant”. “We will ensure that there is no room in Moscow for misunderstandings about our readiness to defend all Allies.”
