The next major arms aid for Ukraine had been announced in the past few days and weeks: the heads of state of the western countries repeated again and again that they would continue to support Ukraine. “Until victory”, as French President Emmanuel Macron recently put it with surprising clarity.
The exact scope of the armor package is not yet clear; it is likely that the USA and France alone will soon hand over around 100 light tanks to Kyiv. Germany also wants to deliver the Marder infantry fighting vehicle – up to 40 units could be the first step. German industry has recently repaired many of the vehicles.
In addition to the tank delivery, there is also a Patriot battery for anti-aircraft defense from Germany. Signals also came from London on Thursday that light tanks would soon be delivered.
The tank donation shortly after the New Year is a double signal to Kyiv and Moscow: we are serious about our support. For Putin, that’s a slap in the face. The balance of power on the battlefield is slowly but surely shifting.
Russia is only superior in mass
While Russia is sending older and older equipment into the field, and stocks of artillery ammunition and rockets are gradually running out, the Ukrainians are arming themselves. Your army is getting better, Russia’s is getting worse. Incidentally, this also applies to the Ukrainian soldiers. Tens of thousands will be trained in the West in 2023.
Although Russia is still superior in terms of quantity, it is now superior to Ukraine in terms of quality. Both troops are now fighting at eye level, which means a dramatic shift in the balance of power since February.
The tank announcement also clearly shows how wrong Putin was about the West. He banked on a cold winter in which Europe ran out of energy resources and a subsequent collapse in front of Moscow. Political determination and the warm weather throw a spanner in the works for the Kremlin ruler.
And correcting this error will be anything but easy for Putin. His only idea so far – or that of his military – is to send tens of thousands of new soldiers to the front.
If the Ukrainian information on Russian losses is at least halfway trustworthy, Putin’s troops could be losing up to 1,500 soldiers a day – they are killed or seriously injured. His mobilized contingent would have been wiped out by the summer.
It’s no wonder that rumors of another wave of mobilization persist in Russia. For the Kremlin it must be clear by now at the latest that the West is to be reckoned with – with Kiev’s courage and fearlessness anyway. Both were underestimated in Moscow.
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