NHL column: Tilting Dallas-Edmonton in Western Conference finals – Stars fly under the radar, Oilers have all eyes on them

The first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs is still in full swing. So just the right time to anticipate the events for those who love to speculate. Dallas and Edmonton are headed for a duel in the West.

Edmonton and Dallas are also in the NHL podcast’s talk this week – via the teams’ leading performers in the playoffs so far: Roope Hintz and Leon Draisaitl. The men stand out in the discussion of the biggest exclamation marks in the first round of the playoffs.

Sure, it’s early to talk conference finals in the first round, but the playoff crystal ball is impatient and won’t let itself be silenced. And if there’s one thing playoff talk is all about, it’s anticipating events. The protagonists get to live in the moment as best they want.

Edmonton and Dallas can of course face a front of headwind already this coming weekend. Still, it’s hard to see how Los Angeles and Minnesota will be able to turn around the 2-3 deficits in their match series and move on. Feels like the Stars and Oilers have taken a suffocating stranglehold.

When it comes time for the second round, the undersigned believes that both Edmonton and Dallas will only get better. Both have a game concept and a self-confidence that takes them all the way to a duel between them.

McDavid human – Oilers still win

Edmonton overturned a 1-2 deficit against a hedgehog-defending Los Angeles Kings via goals when needed. And without Connor McDavid performing at his peak. Admittedly, the radar couple Leon Draisaitl (6+4) has been from another universe.

Last year, the Oilers eliminated the Kings in seven games, and then it was practically the super duo that did it single-handedly. Now the Kings are considerably better than last year, but face an Oilers who have something so unusual – when it comes to Edmonton – as depth.

Two-way forward Zach Hyman scored the 5–4 overtime goal in game four and guard Evan Bouchard was noted for 1+2. Incidentally, Bouchard already has eight points – as many as McDavid. In game five, Nick Bjugstad scored two goals and Brett Kulak one.

After five games, no less than eight players have been recorded for at least three points – three backs five forwards. Well, the Edmonton Oilers are McDavid and Draisaitl’s team, but no longer stand or fall in every single game with the super duo.

Also healthy that in the fifth game every forward not named Draisaitl or Mcdavid was listed for at least 10 minutes of playing time. In a match that did not go to extra time. For example, Ryan McLeod, Nick Bjugstad and Warren Foegele played 16–17 minutes.

It is true that Leon Draisaitl was clocked for 21.38 and Connor McDavid for 19.47, but such minutes are also played by the NHL’s other leading forwards. Big minutes – but not inhuman.

If the Oilers manage to win games with such minute distribution, it bodes well for the moments when the monster duo has to be loaded to the breaking point.

Acceptable defensive complements the whole

Out of 16 playoff teams, at the time of writing, the Oilers are ninth in average goals conceded per game – better than, among others, Vegas and Minnesota. The acquisition at the third deadline, Mattias Ekholm, gives the back squad a whole new edge and the goalkeeping is sufficient.

Newcomer Stuart Skinner has proved more stable than Jack Campbell, who was meant to take care of the first spade. Skinner has not blocked the cage, but provides more security than Campbell – “Soup” has a tendency to lose confidence completely when things go wrong.

The whole looks stronger than in a very long time, and the super duo McDavid-Draisaitl is the sharpest in the NHL. It should also be enough against (presumably) the Vegas Golden Knights – the team from Las Vegas does not have a Philip Danault copy to put against Connor McDavid.

Actually believe that the Kings are the toughest playoff opponent for the Oilers within their own Pacific division.

Dallas has all the right pieces

Key forwards who deliver, an elite back who distributes play, depth in the squad and a real top goalkeeper. That’s the recipe you usually find behind the teams that are seriously fighting to win the Stanley Cup. A lost final in recent memory usually further strengthens the chances.

The Dallas Stars have all the ingredients. In addition, you can add a game system that optimally supports the squad’s strengths. When Rick Bowness’ Dallas made it to the finals in 2020 and to the playoffs at the latest last season, they did so via the game without the puck.

This season, with Peter DeBoer behind the bench, the Stars are taking advantage of their ability with the puck. The leading players, Miro Heiskanen, Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Joe Pavelski perform at their best when they get to play instead of slow down.

The more playoff games you watch this spring, the more it becomes clear how comfortable the Stars players seem to be with their system.

The playoffs in the corona bubble welded the group together

The 2020 playoffs were played in the closed corona bubble. Then a completely unbeaten Dallas went all the way to the finals. Tampa proved to be the number too big, but the trip gave the squad the chemistry and experience every successful team needs.

The core of that team remains: Heiskanen, Benn, Pavelski, Seguin, Radek Faksa, Esa Lindell, Joel Kiviranta. In addition, Jason Robertson was already part of the Stars’ AHL reserve. It shows in everything the team does how much the players trust each other and that everyone knows exactly what is required.

Something quite exceptional is that the veterans from the final group – Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin and Joe Pavelski are better now than they were almost three years ago.

In today’s sports world, it is very rare that so many high-performing key players are kept in the same team for this long.

No one has come out publicly with any big words yet, but it’s abundantly clear that everyone in the locker room knows that right now, this spring, this team probably has its best chance to go all the way.

The best are the best when it counts the most

Of the key players, Joe Pavelski has been out since the second period of Game 1 against the Wild with a concussion (could be back in Game 6). Otherwise, it is exactly the right name that has led the Stars: Hintz, Robertson, Heiskanen, Seguin, Benn top the internal scoring league.

Hintz of course stands out extra with 11 points in six games and Heiskanen with six assists and monster minutes in the rink. Still claims that goaltender Jake Oettinger is the single most important player to Dallas’ dreams of success.

The 24-year-old 196 cm giant is just as good as the Dallas camp could wish for. The Wild leads the de facto series against Dallas in scoring chances and expected goals – Oettinger has time and again taken the brunt of the Wild’s forcing. The clean sheet in game five was no accident.

The very best thing about the Minnesota son (!) Oettinger is that this is not about suddenly overachieving. Last year, he appeared in all of the Stars’ seven playoff games against Calgary, saving 95.4 percent of 285 shots. That there were seven games was thanks to Oettinger.

Now against the Wild, Oettinger’s save percentage is “no better than” 92.5 – completely in balance with the percentage of 91.9 from the 62 games played in the regular season. It, in turn, is a logical continuation of the 21-22 season, Oettinger’s first as first choice: 48 games, 91.4%.

The whole is completed by the fact that the three best backs behind Heiskanen, i.e. Esa Lindell, Ryan Suter and Jani Hakanpää, are ultra-reliable workhorses. In addition, the scoring is supported by sniper Jevgeni Dadonov, who joined at the three-deadline and has already scored three goals against the Wild.

Dallas–Edmonton

Greater miracles have happened than Minnesota turning the series against Dallas in their favor, but it is hard to believe. On the contrary, Dallas should have won the first game – then the Stars would already be preparing to face either Colorado or Seattle next.

Dallas in current form can probably count as a clear favorite in that series. Seattle can’t take advantage of its team machine against one that is better. Reigning champion Colorado, in turn, seems simply too unbalanced and injury-riddled to beat Dallas in a best-of-seven series.

Don’t gamble, but if I did, I’d bet my pennies on a Western Conference final between the Edmonton Oilers and the Dallas Stars. I’ll get back to how it goes.

Thank you for reading.

Sources: hockey-reference.com, nhl.com, naturalstattrick.com