Politically, he differed from the leader of La Libertad Avanza (LLA) on several fronts. Said a radio Mitre that in case of coming to power will not review the legalization of abortiondistinguished Juntos por el Cambio as an alliance that “has a deep institutional look”, affirmed that this “does not attack the press” and declared herself convinced of the need to combat climate change, an issue that Milei tends to dismiss as an invention of “socialism.”
The exit from the stocks is no longer “immediate”, but “as quickly as possible”.
If the above dates from a few days ago, rejection of dollarization It is relevant in those who, until just yesterday, proposed the free choice of currency in contracts as a slightly longer path to the same point of arrival.
Also, look in the mirror Angela Merkelwhom he praises for his austerity, but whom he cannot ignore as a conservative who went to the left of her own party on a sensitive issue like immigration and receiving refugeesand that he never dismantled a welfare state backed by German society.
On the other hand, it builds bridges with the larretista-radical sector, today in disarray. Although he insists that the bid with the Buenos Aires head of government was not “an internal one of egos, something personal”, but a discussion about “if Together for Change had adapted to the system or if it continued to represent change”, he acknowledged that the tone of the dispute “he did us a lot of damage”. That’s why the alliance didn’t come out first on Sunday, he conceded.
To heal those wounds, sketch a unit photo with the mayor, whose endorsement desperately needs to prevent the more moderate wills that bet on him on Sunday from looking for shores like those of Massa. There is a lot that Bullrich will have to row to go from 17% actually own to a majority that fulfills the dream of reaching the Casa Rosada.
Lastly, he begins to define roles in his economic team.
Political-economic calculations
The presidential candidate of JxC counts from the first moment to Luciano Laspina as your main adviser, but you might consider Carlos Melconian to his Minister of Economy, someone he listens to more every day. The latter would be music to the ears of those who encourage the financial market and big business.
Bullrich feels that the way to differentiate himself from Milei is to present his candidacy as a more solid project., as a better guarantee of governability, a detail that separates the bulk of Milei’s Red Circle. However, he does not like to talk about “viability”, a word that sounds too larretistic to him, lukewarm with respect to the change he proposes. He will have to dive into a thesaurus.
unnamed.png
One difference that the more politicized part of the population may care about, but will emphasize is that it would be absurd to eliminate the Central Bank, as the one who runs it on the right proposes. The monetary authority will continue to exist and will have “functional autonomy”, say those who advise it, something that, if one pays attention, is not the same as full independence to carry out monetary policy without coordination with the Palace of Finance.
The change will come, they promise, but it will be realisticthing about which the Fund also wants to internalize.
Although elements that denature it would not be negotiated, the same could not be carried out, as Milei intends, by breaking the system or proposing magical solutions, impossible to comply with and technically and politically unfeasible. This is another premise to the taste of the Red Circle.
Little versed in economics, the hawk has begun to listen more. As she understands her, the devaluation that Massa has just validated will remove UP from the electoral arena.
In this sense, pay attention to subtleties such as whether the 22% increase in the official exchange rate will be enough for freeze parity until october or if, in truth, it will be only the first step of a continuous runas those who understand that the Government has done nothing more than correct a past delay, accumulated in times of Martin Guzman, and that from now on will accumulate new mismatches. In that reading, the crossroads of the dollar She could have seasons even before October 22, November 19 – when she would have to choose between her and Milei, she calculates – and December 10.
That is why he believes that financial uncertainty will increase and that inflation will settle comfortably in double digits every month and that this data will weigh heavily at the polls.
the restlessmore than the threat of the candidate Massa, the inheritance of Minister Massa. If the devaluation will feed inflation, and is there perhaps another devaluation cycle –and, fatally, a recession–, he wonders what will happen to the recent rate updates, whose costs will rise and recreate the cycle of subsidies that he vows to saw down immediately. The higher inflation, higher costs, more subsidies and more unsympathetic task for the future administration, they lament in their environment.
The lack of reserves is already registered in his head and that means that he does not make such light promises about the end of the stocks. He knows that the devaluation that would accompany his eventual debut is limited by a new cycle of social impoverishment, both at the base and in the middle sectors on which he depends.
That, the devaluation, will be an axis of the first phase of a possible government of Patricia Bullrich. The priority will be to align relative prices – dollar, rates, salaries, retirements – and then it will be time to go thoroughly and quickly against the fiscal deficit with an adjustment that, if it will not be in chainsaw mode as whoever imagines as his rival in the ballotageit will be abrupt anyway.
Bullrich knows that Milei embodied an angry vote, not necessarily ideologically libertarian, but he is excited about the possibility that the state of opinion to which he has contributed facilitate the task of explaining that to great evils, great solutions. The existence of 60% of voters for La Libertad Avanza and JxC –he supposes– would allow him to more decisively apply his mantra that “if it’s not everything, it’s nothing.”
