For a motion of censure to be voted on, all the opposition deputies and around thirty LR parliamentarians would have to vote together. What has never happened since the beginning of the quinquennium.
Will the government fall on Monday? After the use of 49.3 by Elisabeth Borne to pass the pension reform, several motions of censure should be tabled by 3:20 p.m. this Friday. In addition to a text signed by the National Rally group, a “transpartisan” motion, signed by the deputies of the Freedoms, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) group will also be tabled.
Even if the opposition seems determined and is delighted with this announcement, the probability that the government will be censured because of this motion in the coming days is low today.
Because for a motion of censure to be adopted, a majority of the members of the National Assembly must vote in favour. Currently, 573 deputies sit in the Palais Bourbon: therefore at least 287 votes are needed.
237 votes are already guaranteed for the “transpartisan” motion: those of the left-wing political groups making up the Nupes (149) and those of the National Rally (88). To these votes would be added those of the non-registered deputies opposed to the text (+3 or 4) and therefore those of the members of the LIOT group who signed the motion (+15 or 16). That is a total, at best, of 257 votes.
The opposition must therefore find, for the motion of censure to be adopted, at least 30 votes at Les Républicains.
At least 23 votes are missing
Problem: “not to add chaos to chaos”, the president of the Republicans Eric Ciotti. announced that none of the deputies of the group would vote for a motion of censure in the National Assembly
In the process, on our antenna, Aurélien Pradié, LR deputy for Lot against the pension reform, indicated that he had pleaded at a party meeting for the filing of a motion of censure.
“Each deputy remains completely free to participate in another motion of censure. I personally do not wish to associate my voices with those of insubordinate France and the National Rally”, he declared.
Thursday evening, BFMTV counted seven LR deputies saying they were ready to vote for a cross-party motion. The total would therefore increase to… 264. Insufficient, therefore, to overthrow the government.
However, by Monday, probable day of the examination of the motions of censure, elected officials could be added to this list. Because a small majority of the population supports censorship, according to the latest Elabe poll for BFMTV.
If they could participate in a vote of a motion of censure after using 49.3, 55% of those polled would vote for the motion of censure. 23% would vote against and 22% would abstain.
