The pension reform comes to an end on Thursday. It must be voted on in both chambers of Parliament. Unless Elisabeth Borne chooses to draw 49.3 in front of the deputies, for lack of the assurance of an absolute majority.
The long-awaited moment has arrived and the suspense is still there. This Thursday, after a conclusive joint joint commission (CMP), the pension reform is returning to both chambers of Parliament. A passage is planned for the Senate at 9 a.m., before another at the National Assembly at 3 p.m. Both chambers will have to decide on the final version of the bill.
If the case seems heard at the Palais du Luxembourg, where the text was adopted at first reading last Saturday, mass is not said in the lower house. Unlike their fellow senators, the Republican deputies are divided. The government has multiplied the concessions, but the disagreements persist. The ultimate compromise found this Wednesday in the CMP around long careers – the fad of reluctant right-wing deputies – did not change much in the film.
The fate of the reform, if passed, will be decided by a handful of votes. In a position of relative majority, the presidential camp needs at least forty votes from the benches of the right, unless the level of abstention lowers this threshold.
If the text is adopted after a vote of the two chambers of Parliament, the macronie will be able to claim the democratic legitimacy of it. Otherwise, if it is rejected, the snub will be very severe for a bill presented as the “mother of reforms” by Emmanuel Macron. There remains the option of 49.3, which would allow the government to pass in force, without a vote of the deputies. Back in detail on these three scenarios.
A favorable vote in the National Assembly
The executive has been repeating it for days to anyone who wants to hear it: “a majority exists”. This is what Elisabeth Borne said no less than twelve times before the deputies this Tuesday, during questions to the government. To achieve its ends, the presidential troops have multiplied the attempts – between threats of exclusion from the Renaissance group for the deputies who would not vote for the reform, phone calls made to the elected Republicans hesitant or compromise found with them in CMP this Wednesday.
For now, an absolute majority is still not assured according to our estimates. More specifically, between 262 and 285 deputies say they are ready to vote for the pension reform. So far, the executive is maintaining its course. Around the main members of the government mobilized on the bill and the Prime Minister, Emmanuel Macron reaffirmed it during a meeting at the Elysee Palace this Wednesday evening: he “wants a vote in Parliament” this Thursday.
If the coin falls on the right side, the executive will have won his bet. It will be able to establish its legitimacy. Certainly the dissatisfaction around the reform would not disappear. And the mobilizations could continue – Philippe Martinez, leader of the CGT, repeating at will that a “law, even passed is not necessarily applied”, with as an example the first employment contract (CPE).
However, Laurent Berger, secretary general of the CFDT, recognizes this himself in The Parisian:
“The scenarios are obviously different depending on the nature of the vote, if there is a 49.3 or if there is a positive vote from parliamentarians the logic is not the same.
The latter nevertheless adds that “in any case, that does not mean that we will press the stop button”.
The rejection of the bill by the deputies
With other union officials, he will go this Thursday around 12:30 p.m. to the National Assembly to put pressure on the hesitant deputies. The centrals, like the left and far right oppositions, dream of a vote against the government.
In such a case, it would be a very clear disavowal. The Macronist boat, which has already been pitching for several weeks, would be adrift. What meaning would the continuation of Emmanuel Macron’s five-year term have after the rejection of this major bill? What about its ability to reform?
Note that an unfavorable vote would not necessarily mean an end to the examination of the bill. This could enter a second round, with a new parliamentary shuttle. Not sure, however, that the executive, already weakened by these weeks of defending its text, will choose this option. It would also be possible for it to rework it with the social partners. With a stalemate, however: the unions refuse en bloc a postponement of the legal age, the heart of the presidential project.
The Head of State could, moreover, retaliate with a dissolution of the National Assembly, a power which is permitted to him by Article 12 of the Constitution. He let this threat hover on Wednesday evening. A way especially for him to put pressure on elected Republicans. Members of a party very weakened by its divisions but also the starving score of Valérie Pécresse in the presidential election, they could potentially be in danger if they had to campaign again.
In a post-pension reform context, it is not sure, however, that Emmanuel Macron’s troops will be bailed out in the event of legislative elections. In any case, the initial breach, an unfavorable vote on pension reform, is unlikely to light up. If the executive throws himself into the mouth of the wolf this Thursday, there is a good chance that he is sure of his shot.
The triggering of 49.3
If these last few days have not sufficiently reassured him, the presidential camp has 49.3. This article of the Constitution allows him to have a text adopted, without a vote of the deputies, subject in passing to the commitment of his responsibility. Its use results in the immediate suspension of the debates.
But at what cost? Certainly this “tool is constitutional”, as Olivier Véran pointed out, but the context is particular. Different from the one that surrounded the vote on the finance bill or the Social Security budget a few months ago. How would public opinion react, after weeks of mobilization expressing a massive rejection of the bill?
For the moment, the Élysée is procrastinating and wants “the consultations to continue (this Thursday) to continue the mobilization”. Emmanuel Macron brings together at 8:15 a.m. the party leaders and the presidents of majority parliamentary groups to take stock. Wednesday evening, the Elysée indicated that “all institutional schemes are possible with the desire to move the country forward”. If the executive finally draws the ax article, it will first have to organize a Council of Ministers this Thursday morning.
By overplaying confidence and the determination to obtain a majority, he has in a way prepared the ground. “Some good minds think that the government is saying this to clear itself of its appeal,” said centrist deputy Charles de Courson on BFMTV-RMC on Tuesday. It would thus be a question of “saying ‘I didn’t want to (…) but I was forced to'”. Not enough to prevent the presidential camp from emerging largely weakened by the sequence.
And the oppositions are already ready to retaliate. The rebellious want to use “all means at their disposal” to defeat the government. The left is studying the possibility of an appeal to the Constitutional Council but also of a referendum of shared initiative. An option that can lead to a referendum proposal, but has never succeeded since its introduction in the Constitution in 2008.
Moreover, in the event of 49.3, the National Rally and La France insoumise would table a motion of censure – the elected representatives of Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s party wish to do so in any case. But, it is above all a transpartisan motion tabled by the centrist Charles de Courson and co-signed by elected LRs which could give the government sweats.
Certainly the horizon of its adoption, made possible by the favorable vote of the absolute majority of deputies (287 currently) seems far away. But it would be achievable with a vote of the united left, the far right, the Liberty, Independents, Overseas and Territories (LIOT) deputies and a good part of the right-wing elected representatives. Above all, it would not arouse the same rejection for certain elected opposition officials as a motion from the rebellious or the RN. In any case, the vote would potentially be played by a few votes. Enough to worry and further weaken the presidential camp.
