The executive is preparing to face a month of January under very high tension. Elisabeth Borne, who receives the unions on Tuesday, will present the highly contested pension reform next week. Before trying to convince on immigration and on energy, two politically highly inflammable subjects against a backdrop of record price increases.
A few days before the return of the deputies on January 9, the Prime Minister is once again trying to demine an explosive social return, between pension reform and inflation. If the extension of the starting age is the file at the top of the pile for the next few weeks, Matignon will have to face other explosive subjects in January.
The Prime Minister set the course again on the pension file this Tuesday morning before receiving the social partners in stride for final discussions.
• A highly criticized pension reform
While ensuring that the departure at 65 was not a “totem” on France news, the head of government announced that the text would be presented to the Council of Ministers on 23 January. The reform, the outlines of which will be presented on January 10, should apply “from the end of the summer of 2023”, as Emmanuel Macron put forward during his wishes on December 31.
Problem: the government is currently unanimous against him. The unions are fiercely opposed to this reform – including the most reformist like the CFDT. This is the first time in more than a decade that the social partners have come together on pensions.
The LR deputies, on whom the executive counted a lot to pass its reform in the Assembly, seem to hesitate. Éric Ciotti, the new boss of the movement, has said that he wants “contribute” “to this reform” if it saves the system”. Alain Marleix, the boss of right-wing elected representatives in the Assembly, indicated his fierce opposition, as did the RN and the whole of Nupes.
• Towards a 49.3 to extend the retirement age
If the executive tries to put water in its wine – promising to take into account long careers and arduousness – the French remain largely opposed to it. Only 21% of them are in favor of postponing the legal retirement age according to an Elabe poll for BFMTV.
The use of Article 49.3 of the Constitution, which allows a law to be adopted without going through the vote of the deputies, therefore seems very likely, in the absence of an absolute majority of the executive. It would be the first time in the Fifth Republic that a pension reform would be adopted in this way.
• A high-risk immigration bill
Another hot issue on the government’s table: the immigration bill which will be presented in the coming weeks to the Council of Ministers. Gérald Darmanin will defend this text with Olivier Dussopt. The Minister of Labor is expected at the turn after the arrival of 234 migrants from the Ocean Viking in November in the port of Toulon. Departures from reception centers for unaccompanied minors, imbroglio around expulsions … His management of the file has been criticized by the right and the RN.
If the Minister of the Interior has multiplied the winks in the direction of his former political friends – claiming to defend “everything that the LRs have always asked” -, one of the axes of the reform does not pass. The right-wing deputies hardly relish the creation of a residence permit for undocumented workers in sectors in tension.
A real pebble in the shoe for the government which cannot, here again, do without their support to pass its migration reform. A setback in this area would be particularly symbolic as the government has succeeded since June in having all its texts voted on – with the notable exception of the state and social security budgets.
• Rising energy prices amid nuclear reform
Last pitfall for the government: energy. The government knows it is expected to turn when the price of gas and electricity bills will increase by 15% this year in a context of high inflation. Enough to put a big spotlight on the bill which wants to accelerate the deployment of nuclear power in France, activating the construction of six EPR reactors in the coming years.
In full tension on the country’s electricity supply, the text could take on the appearance of a catalyst for the economic difficulties of the French. The bill on renewable energies, the debates on which took place in a rather calm atmosphere, will be voted on on 10 January next.
It too has symbolic value whereas the end of the rebate at the pump – replaced by a check for 100 euros for “the big rollers” – and its consequences on the wallets of the French, are closely followed by the executive.
With an anguish: a possible coagulation of discontent. Calls to relaunch the Yellow Vests movement on January 7 have multiplied in recent days, just days after strikes, far from unions, doctors and SNCF controllers.
