Berlin
Poland’s defense minister promises his country will have the strongest army in Europe. Is that just campaign bluster? Not quite.
Chain rattling before the election: The Polish one ruling party PiS wants to upgrade Poland’s army to become the strongest army in Europe within the next two years. This was announced by Defense Minister Mariusz Błaszczak at a campaign event in the city of Wołomin, according to the Polska Agencja Prasowa (PAP) news agency. A prerequisite for this is that the national-conservative government be confirmed in the fall.
Błaszczak, who is also deputy prime minister, said according to the PAP: “If the voters, if the people give us another term, then we can meet again here in Wołomin in two years and then I can show you that the Polish army will be the strongest land army in Europe.”
Poland will elect a new one in September Parliament (Sejm), both the governing coalition and the opposition have realistic chances of being able to lead the country’s fortunes. Correspondingly pithy remarks can be heard from both camps. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, for example, revealed himself as a “supporter of the death penalty” at the beginning of the year.
Promises of the strongest army in Europe should at least fall into a similar category. 2022 gave the Government $14.5 billion for defense. Although the country is one of the few to comply with the two percent NATO mark, it still lags behind its allies. Germany, for example, invested more than 50 billion US dollars, Great Britain around 57 billion. Even a heavily increased budget will not catapult Poland’s armed forces to the forefront of European armies.
Warsaw is arming itself in a big way
Still, there is more to the defense secretary’s promises than campaign bluster. Then Poland upgrades – massively. The defense budget has doubled since 2006, from $6.62 billion to $13.71 billion in 2021. And it’s set to grow even more: Prime Minister Morawiecki’s announcement that Warsaw would allocate four percent of its gross domestic product to the US in 2023 caused a stir spend polish army. The regular budget for 2023 is 18 billion US dollars, plus a 10 billion dollar special fund.
Warsaw invests this money in, among other things Panzer and armored personnel carriers and thus, as promised by Błaszczak, into his land forces. In South Korea, Poland has ordered 1,000 K2 main battle tanks. The first vehicles have already arrived, and others are to be produced locally under license. There are also 650 guns and 48 light combat aircraft. In the US, the country bought 250 Abrams tanks and support vehicles. Most recently, Defense Minister Błaszczak announced that Poland would buy 1,000 Borsuk-type armored personnel carriers from the domestic tank builder Hutę Stalowa Wola. Experts estimate that series production could begin as early as 2024.
The orders will not only strengthen the capabilities of the Polish army. On the one hand, the country handed over a relatively large number of its tanks and other military vehicles to Ukraine, alone at least 260 Soviet-made main battle tanks, as well as several dozen more modern Leopard 2s.
The Kiel Institute for the World Economy puts the value of these and other deliveries at around 2.64 billion US dollars (2.4 billion euros). Poland This puts it in fourth place in terms of military aid to Ukraine, behind Germany, Great Britain and the USA. In terms of gross domestic product, Poland actually gives significantly more than these countries. The gaps that have arisen want to be filled and the orders of the last few months are doing just that.
Read more about defense
Poland learns from the Ukraine war
On the other hand looks Poland with a special perspective on Russia’s war of aggression. Since the Russian ruler Vladimir Putin has repeatedly expressed his imperial intentions, Poland, whose territory has also been under Russian rule several times in the course of history, must assume that an attack is at least not impossible.
Moscow is now mainly sending tanks and artillery into battle and trying to Ukraine to bring it to its knees in a long war of attrition with sheer material superiority. To fend off such an attack, an army needs appropriate supplies of vehicles, spare parts and ammunition. Should Russia attack Poland one day, the country would have a tailor-made answer with its large armored forces, among other things.
At the same time, the government knows Warsawthat thousands of new tanks have deterrent potential. Putin and his strategists should think twice before sending the already badly battered Russian armed forces into battle against a well-armed opponent. True, Russia has nominally about 12,500 tanks of various types and levels of technology.
Government wants to prevent new “betrayal of the West”.
However, the Ukraine war shows that numerical superiority alone is far from enough to achieve a quick victory. And that’s exactly what is needed from the Russian point of view against that NATO member Poland, which is under the shield of nuclear weapons. The only way to prevent a nuclear response to an attack with conventional weapons would be to overwhelm the enemy so quickly that the other NATO members no longer see any point in risking a nuclear war.
This may seem unrealistic from a (Western) European point of view, but from a Polish point of view it would not be the first time that allies have not come. To this day feels Poland Betrayed by the West because France and Great Britain did not invade Germany in September 1939, even though both countries had guaranteed Polish independence.
To prevent history from repeating itself, Poland will need to be able to put up a decent defense for a long time. At least until NATO can organize reinforcements. Given the empty depots and inadequately equipped armies in Europe, it can take a long time for help to arrive. This has to be bridged and for that to work, Warsaw needs – like them federal republic in the Cold War – a powerful army.
The promises of Secretary of Defense are not just pithy words, but reflect reality. In the medium term, no land force in Europe is likely to be more powerful than Poland’s. Simply because the country has no other choice.
Ukraine Crisis – The most important news about the war
More articles from this category can be found here: Politics
