There is said to be a manual from the Kremlin that tells the Russian media how to report on a possible counter-offensive. It appears that there are two scenarios.
The Russian government is apparently preparing a handbook for state and pro-Russian media on how a Ukrainian counter-offensive is to be presented to the public. This is reported by the independent Russian news site Meduza, which claims to have received a corresponding paper from the Kremlin.
The Kremlin should warn its chief propagandists not to underestimate “the announced Ukrainian counter-offensive with NATO support” and “not to say that Kiev is allegedly not ready”. So far, NATO has not intervened in the Ukraine war, but member countries are supplying Ukraine with weapons and equipment.
The Ukrainian army should therefore not be presented as weak in the instructions. The pro-Kremlin media increasingly reported that “Western countries are supplying arms to Kiev and supporting Ukraine in every possible way”. The purpose of the propaganda is to make the Russian army, and thus Putin and his leadership, look good in the eyes of the Russian public – even if Ukraine is successful.
Two scenarios – but one winner
Two anonymous Kremlin sources told Meduza that the Moscow leadership is pursuing two scenarios. If the Ukrainian efforts failed, one could point to the strength of the Russian army and claim this as a success. Especially because, from the Russian point of view, you would have won against the West as Ukraine supporters.
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However, should Ukraine be successful with its counter-offensive and reconquer areas, then this will be downplayed. The focus of the propaganda would then be that Russia had successfully defended most areas despite allegedly massive Western support for Ukraine.
Don’t give any figures about reconstruction
In the handout to the propagandists, they are apparently instructed not to write about Russian spending on reconstruction in the occupied territories. It is currently unclear what costs Russia has estimated – Meduza is estimated at around eleven billion euros. The government deficit is currently twice as high.
Instead, according to Moscow’s wishes, reports were to appear on how Russia was solving problems in the occupied territories, repairing schools and kindergartens and getting hospitals operational again.
Apparently, Putin wants to avoid a riot like the one that happened after the occupation of Crimea: when it became clear how much money Russia had spent, according to Meduza, there were massive complaints from the population three years later in an internal survey. 40 percent of those surveyed in Russia criticized the fact that there was no money for education, training and pensions. More than half found it wrong that money was flowing into Crimea and that it was lacking in social areas.
This is one of the reasons why propagandists such as talk show hosts and commentators are advised not to report much on the preparations for May 9th, when the Soviet Union’s victory over Germany is celebrated. In some areas, the parades have already been cancelled. According to insider information to Meduza, this is probably due to the fact that there are hardly any military vehicles left to present – most of them were used in the war.
