Military economist Marcus Keupp from the ETH Zurich Military Academy has described the Russian strategy in the war against Ukraine as a “disaster”. In an interview with ZDF, Keupp says: “This is a rate of attrition that Russia simply cannot keep up with.” It is only a matter of time before Putin’s army runs out of reserves, the military economist continued. “It has nothing to do with military logic.”
Marcus Keupp: “Technologically speaking, Russia is escalating downwards”
Keupp continues: “From a technological point of view, Russia is escalating downwards.” Due to the immense losses, Putin is sending older and older tank models into the war. “A great disenchantment of the Russian army is taking place here,” says Keupp. Many experts, including himself, overestimated the army in the run-up to the war.
If Russian losses remain at the same level, “they will soon reach a point where Russia is no longer able to carry out operations at all,” Keupp analyzes on ZDF. “The only thing left for them to do after that is burrow.”
Soon, Putin’s army has only one option – and it’s fatal
But that would be fatal for Putin’s army. Because: “The Ukraine is transitioning from old Soviet technology to Western technology, in particular to Western battle tanks and infantry vehicles such as the Bradley or Marder.”
This technological effect should “under no circumstances be underestimated”, according to Keupp. “So far in this war Soviet material has been fighting Soviet material. But that will change fundamentally.” You will see the effect as soon as the Ukrainian counter-offensive begins. Keupp expects “mid-April” so.
“Then there is actually no other outcome conceivable”
The loss rate of the Russian army, which is already high, would then increase even further. “If you think about what this is actually leading to, then no other outcome is actually conceivable,” says Keupp on ZDF when asked about his prediction that the Russian army will have lost strategically by October at the latest. He had recently calculated this forecast based on the tank losses.
You can see the entire ZDF live stream with Marcus Keupp
here
.
