On March 21, the holy fasting month of Ramadan begins for all Muslim believers. Will this further fuel the Middle East conflict? Picture: TheNEWS2 via ZUMA Press Wire / Saher Elghorra
Analyse
20.03.2023, 18:2220.03.2023, 18:23
Deadly attacks on Israeli soldiers. An Israeli mob vandalizing a Palestinian settlement while doing it People kills. Mass protests against the Israeli government’s controversial judicial reform. The Middle East conflict is brewing.
In this already heated situation, Ramadan begins on March 21 – the holy month of fasting, one of the pillars of Islam. This could possibly be a big spark in the Middle East powder keg conflict.
Israeli security forces and demonstrators clash during protests near Huwara.Image: dpa / Ilia Yefimovich
In the past, violent clashes between the warring camps have repeatedly occurred, especially during Ramadan. The Middle East conflict between Israel and Palestine threatens to escalate, experts warn, including Mohammed Abu-Nimer.
He is a professor teaching “Peace and Conflict Studies” at the American University in Washington, DC USA. “The escalation has reached a level not seen in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict for years,” he told Watson. He holds the Israeli government accountable.
Expert: Israeli violence throws Palestine into survival mode
The new type of violence emanating from the right-wing Israeli-Jewish settlers is raising the level of tension to an extremely new level, according to Abu-Nimer. “The conflict is throwing local Palestinians into a survival mode,” he says. The political scientist reports on the concerns of a Palestinian mother:
“Today a Palestinian woman called me to complain that she cannot let her children out into the streets. She is afraid that the settlers will kidnap or kill her son, as they did in Nablus.”
The fear of Violence Israel is real, says Abu-Nimer. Right now, in the already tense situation, the Israeli government must implement de-escalating measures for Ramadan. “The more restrictions the Israeli military and settlers impose on Palestinian mobility, the angrier and more frustrated Palestinians — both Muslims and Christians — will be,” he explains.
Palestinians wait at the Bethlehem checkpoint in the Israeli-occupied West Bank.Bild: imago images/ZUMA Wire / Mosab Shawer
Ramadan: Not a month of violence or blood
Ramadan is a holy month of prayer and spiritual reflection. For members of the Muslim faith, it is a month of lived community and family solidarity. “It is not a month of violence or blood,” says Abu-Nimer. Muslims want access to their holy places to pray. They should also be allowed to visit each other to celebrate Ramadan, says the conflict researcher.
For him it is clear: The problem does not lie in Ramadan, but in the blocking of the passageways to the holy places. People would be prevented from living out their freedom of religion. This deprives them of their right to practice their religion. Political scientist Patrick James, on the other hand, estimates the potential for conflict in the event of a major uprising during Ramadan to be low.
Powder Keg Middle East Conflict: Impact on the Region
It would render Palestinians useless Life cost, but hardly improve their situation. Instead, James, a professor of international relations at the University of Southern California, expects more symbolic actions on the part of Palestine for Ramadan. He does not see any great potential for the conflict in the region to escalate. When asked by watson he says:
“The reason for this is that the coalitions in the Middle East are now fundamentally different. Reactions to a new intifada would probably be largely negative in the Arab world.”
Because there is “per se no longer an ‘Arab-Israeli’ conflict,” says James. Instead, the main focus is on the Iran. According to James, in order to oppose Iranian interests in the region, a “surreal coalition of convenience” consisting of countries such as Israel, Egypt and Saudi Arabian educated. This is supported from outside by the USA.
Abraham Accords isolates Palestinians
“As long as the Abraham Accords remain intact, the Palestinians will remain fairly isolated,” says James. The Abraham Accords were signed in 2021 between Israel, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. Agreements with Morocco and Sudan followed later.
Abu-Nimer is obviously more critical. For the expert, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has always been a catalyst for broader violence in the region. Is said:
“The Middle East conflict may affect the behavior of Lebanon, Jordan and other Arab countries. The tense situation also plays into the hands of violent extremist groups like ISIS and al-Qaeda. They have already used the conflict to justify attacks elsewhere .”
According to Abu-Nimer, the Middle East conflict and its effects should not be underestimated. According to him, Israeli settlers in particular incite violence and thus risk an escalation of the conflict. “The expansion of settlements and the confiscation of Palestinian land is the main cause of violence and escalation,” he says.
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Young Palestinians take up arms and foment violence
The German-Israeli psychologist Ahmad Mansour does not view the conflict in such a one-dimensional manner. In an earlier conversation with watson he warns about an increasing radicalization among young people – on both the Israeli and the Palestinian side.
In both camps, the young generation celebrates its violence, emotions and victim role. The Palestinians in particular are shifting their propaganda to social media, giving solution-oriented voices no chance. Mansour is concerned about the upcoming Ramadan. He has the feeling that an escalation has become inevitable.
sea”Spiegel” More and more Palestinian youth in the occupied territories are resorting to the Waffen. According to the report, there are new militias whose members are barely of legal age. They are not affiliated with Islamic Jihad, nor with Hamas or Fatah. They should call themselves “brigades”. In addition, a troupe from Nablus is receiving increasing international attention: “Arin al-Usud”, the lion’s den.
Young Palestinians take on Israeli security forces. Bild: imago images/ZUMA Wire / Ashraf Amra
In the West Bank, the right-wing government of Benjamin Netanyahu and young Palestinians are rocking each other. But how could a worsening of the conflict be counteracted? According to political scientist James, there is no encouraging answer.
Clear demand to the international community
“The confrontation will probably continue as long as the settlements exist,” he says. His Opinion according to nothing positive will develop in the region in the near future. Abu-Nimer, on the other hand, is hopeful and calls for a clear step by the international community.
“United Nations forces must be stationed in these areas to prevent further escalation,” he says. Immediate protection of the Palestinians in the occupied territories is required.
A Palestinian throws a rock at Israeli settlers and an Israeli soldier during clashes.Bild: AP / Majdi Mohammed
In addition, the Israeli government must be sanctioned for its support of the “fascist and racist ministers”. By this he means the extreme right-wing politicians Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich. With the support of Netanyahu, they are leading the radical campaign against Palestine.
Abu-Nimer continues: The international community should boycott Israeli government officials and hold them accountable. Measures that could be taken by or against Palestine – Abu-Nimer makes no suggestions on this.
