US intelligence says the militarily weakened Vladimir Putin is seeking to consolidate his gains in Ukraine.
Russian forces in Ukraine are so weakened that they cannot launch a “significant offensive” and are therefore concentrating on consolidating their gains in occupied territory, US intelligence director Avril Haines said on Thursday.
Russian President Vladimir “Putin has likely scaled back his immediate ambitions as he seeks to consolidate control of occupied territories in eastern and southern Ukraine, and to ensure that Ukraine never becomes an ally of NATO,” the official said during a hearing before a parliamentary committee.
kyiv fears a major Russian offensive
But, she said, whatever the outcome of a future Ukrainian offensive – whether it retakes part of the occupied east and south or whether the current stalemate continues – it is unlikely that Vladimir Putin makes concessions in view of peace negotiations.
Kiev assures that its preparations for a vast offensive to reconquer the territories occupied by Russia in the east and in the south “are coming to an end”. Russia still occupies nearly 20% of Ukraine, including the Crimean peninsula, annexed in 2014.
“The challenge is that while Putin is likely to revise his near-term ambitions, the prospect of Russian concessions to advance negotiations this year appears dim unless a domestic political vulnerability alters his thinking.” , added the senior official.
Deficiencies within the Russian army
She particularly insisted on the degraded state of the Russian army which has “significant” deficiencies in ammunition and personnel, preventing Moscow from launching any offensive in Ukraine. Its losses are such that it will take “years to rebuild” the army, she further estimated.
“We continue to assess that Putin has most certainly calculated that time is on his side, and that prolonging the war offers him the best path to possibly securing Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine,” he said. she said.
The official still considered “very unlikely” that Mr. Putin would use nuclear weapons in this conflict.
