In the first round, the two were neck and neck at about 35 percent. Since none of them cleared the 50 percent hurdle, they now compete head-to-head against each other. The independent Pavel is backed by the centre-right government and almost all of the losing candidates. He advocates further aid for Ukraine. The populist ex-prime minister and billionaire Babis has the backing of outgoing President Milos Zeman.
In contrast to Pavel, Babis spoke out against further aid to Ukraine. During the election campaign, he described Pavel as a threat to peace. The 68-year-old Babis presented himself as an opponent of war and a guardian of peace. His campaign posters for the run-off election read: “I will not push the Czech Republic into a war” or “I am a diplomat, not a soldier”. Pavel firmly denied the insinuations.
Warning against “departure from pro-Western course”
Pavel, in turn, promises the 10.5 million people that he will ensure security as head of state. “I cannot ignore the fact that people here increasingly feel chaos, disorder and insecurity. That the state somehow stopped functioning,” says Pavel’s campaign website with the domain generalpavel.cz. “We have to change that. We must abide by the rules, which will apply equally to everyone.”
In general, Pavel asks whether the voters would believe the “empty promises” made by ex-Prime Minister Babis or whether they would like a change. He also sees the danger of populism and a “turn away from the pro-Western and European course” if his competitor wins. Babis served as Prime Minister from 2017 to 2021. He narrowly lost last year’s parliamentary elections to the centre-right coalition that now governs.
Scandal in the TV duel
The big TV duel between the two on the public broadcaster CT last Sunday was meaningful for the positions: Babis actually didn’t want to face the discussion with Pavel at all – as with the “elephant round” before the first ballot, he also wanted to face the refrain from voting. However, the Babis team changed tactics immediately before the start of the show – Babis appeared, contrary to his original line.
The discussion revealed deep rifts on almost all topics: questions about the economy, the relationship between the two and the political parties, the communist past of the two, which was already heavily discussed in the first ballot – there were two hours of hard verbal battles and mutual accusations on each of these topics. But one topic caused a tremendous reverberation – namely when it came to the Russian war of aggression against Ukraine.
“No certainly not”
Babis accused ex-NATO general Pavel of wanting to lead the Czech Republic into the Ukraine war while he was promoting peace, the ex-PM stressed. Pavel firmly denied the allegations and accused his rival of “permanently spreading lies”. But then came the excitement: Babis was asked if he would send troops in the event of an attack on Poland, Latvia, Lithuania or Estonia as part of NATO’s collective response.
Babis then: “No, definitely not. I want peace and not war. I would never send our children, that is, the children of our wives, to war.” A condition imposed on Pavel, who headed the NATO Military Committee from 2015 to 2018. He reminded Babis of the obligations of the member states – and the Czech Republic is one of them. In short: In addition to rights, there are also obligations, one of which is the obligation to provide assistance. “It’s in Article 5,” Pavel said.
Rowing back via Twitter
But it wasn’t just Pavel’s reply – Babis himself tried to capture what he had unleashed via Twitter immediately after the TV appearance: “If there were a real attack, I would of course violate Article 5 (of the NATO treaty, n. ),” wrote Babis. In general, he would have preferred not to answer the hypothetical question about an attack on Poland or the Baltic States, as he also wrote.
“Champagne corks pop in the Kremlin”
Irrespective of this, criticism and outrage quickly erupted at home and abroad over Babis’ statements. Estonian Foreign Minister Urmas Reinsalu said Babis’ words were “the worst example” of security being compromised for domestic reasons. Similar criticism also came from Latvia and Lithuania, although purely “domestic political considerations” were recognized.
The Polish opposition figure Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz called the statements “absurd and dangerous”. They raised doubts about NATO cooperation. “In the Kremlin, they can already start popping the champagne corks.” Czech Deputy Prime Minister Ivan Bartos described Babis as a “direct and concrete threat” to the country. Prime Minister Petr Fiala called for moderation so as not to endanger the country’s interests.
Whirl about fake SMS
In the run-up to the runoff, there was also a stir about fake SMS messages. Posts appeared on social media from users saying they had received a message with a draft order that appeared to have been sent by candidate Pavel. “Please go to the nearest army base, where you will receive the necessary equipment for mobilization for combat in Ukraine,” the fake SMS said.
Mood probably more pro Pavel
In general, the public mood does not seem to be in favor of Babis. In the last two polls before the ballot, Pavel had a double-digit lead over Babis. At Ipsos, Pavel came in at 58.8 percent on Monday (the last day for published polls), Babis at 41.2 percent. At a median, 57.9 percent of the participants said they wanted to vote for Pavel, 42.1 percent said they wanted Babis.
In the Czech Republic, the president does not run government affairs, but he appoints the head of government, judges and central bankers and has a say in foreign policy. The term of office of the outgoing President Zeman, who among other things advocated a rapprochement with China, ends at the beginning of March. The winner of the tough duel between Babis and Pavel then takes over – in all probability he will be known on Saturday evening.
