Nadal injured, Djokovic in doubt, Alcaraz on alternating current, Medvedev and Tsitsipas still fragile… For the first time in a long time, no player seems to be advancing as a big favorite at the Porte d’Auteuil.
The land of Paris is still far away but it has never seemed so hostile. Among all its potential conquerors, none today gives the guarantees to tame it. A rare fact in the history of Roland-Garros where, for years, one or two players generally collect all the forecasts. “It’s very difficult to learn lessons on clay this season”confirms our consultant Arnaud Clément.
Admittedly, the Parisian tournament only begins on May 28 and, until then, an ogre of ocher can always assert itself. But, for the moment, this conquistador has not made himself known, and the usual tenors are surprisingly silent. Sunday April 16, Andrey Rublev triumphed on the first Masters 1000 of the season on land, his first in his career for the Russian, who does not yet have the makings of a boss. “There are a lot of usual things that some of us miss”, adds Arnaud Clément. Review of the weaknesses present.
Nadal, the iliac and the odyssey
Rafael Nadal, landless king? The Spaniard, who hasn’t played a match since injuring the iliopsoas in his left leg at the Australian Open in mid-January, has started a race against time to defend his 14th title at Paris. His fight resembles that of an ancient hero, valiant but worn, who refuses to capitulate against time. Time slipping away and which forced him, once again, to postpone a return to earth planned in Barcelona this week.
At 36, Nadal has enough experience to listen to the workings of his body and he certainly does not want to rush his return to better preserve his chances at Porte d’Auteuil. But by dint of retreating, the Majorcan himself digs an increasingly greater distance with his objective. “It’s a huge question mark, assures our consultant. We are waiting for answers but we will only really have them when he returns to the courts. And we don’t know when.”
Djokovic no longer has free rein
Given his start to the season and Nadal’s prolonged absence, the world number 1 seemed to have a highway ahead of him to Roland-Garros. The tennis road has decided otherwise. Dark look and conference sent at no charge, Novak Djokovic did not linger after his defeat in the round of 16 in Monte-Carlo against Lorenzo Musetti. Arnaud Clément is surprised: “With his impasse on the American tour, and therefore more time to prepare on clay, we expected him to perform better”.
But the inconsistency of his game, like his first balls pushed barely 170 km / h, alerted observers. And the publication of some photos of a training session, just before the start of the Monegasque tournament, where the Serb grimaces in pain while holding his right elbow, ignited the powder. It is indeed this same elbow that the “Djoker” had operated on a few years ago, and it was enough for the thesis of the relapse to reappear. The sleeve on his arm that he wore on the occasion of his defeat against the young Italian, only accredit it.
The Alcaraz Alert
He is not yet 20 years old but Carlos Alcaraz already has a history of injuries which can be worrying. When his body leaves him in peace, as in Indian Wells recently, the Spaniard is almost unplayable. But the machine is fragile. Already absent in Melbourne, the prodigy took a nose dive in the semi-finals in Miami against Sinner, betrayed by his physique.
Since then, post-traumatic arthritis in the hand and muscular discomfort in the spine forced him to forfeit Monte-Carlo. If his return to earth is scheduled in Barcelona, it will be necessary to closely monitor the Murcian mechanics. Programmed to reign, this one has not yet been delivered with all the guarantees. “It’s true that we are still waitingnotes Arnaud Clément. If he has already won a Masters 1000 title on this surface (Madrid last year), he can still weaken physically in a Grand Slam match in five sets.
Tsitsipas-Medvedev, like a refusal of an obstacle
In riding, Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas would look like thoroughbreds cut out for victory but sometimes restive. The Russian has for him this aversion to the surface that he has never really hidden. “If I could, I would play hard all the time”, he said after his victory at the Masters 1000 in Miami. The numbers prove him right: out of his 19 career titles, Medvedev has won 18 on hard courts, and one on grass! The proof again in Monte-Carlo, overtaken by the science of the young Holger Rune in the quarter-finals but also worn out by his fight against Alexander Zverev the day before. “Even if he accepts clay much better than before, if he is constantly looking for solutions on this surface, it would be a huge surprise to see him win”predicts Clement.
Much more comfortable than him on crushed brick, mastering the delicate art of sliding, Stefanos Tsitsipas nevertheless continues to offer himself some uncontrolled slippages, such as this surprising defeat against Taylor Fritz in Monte-Carlo (6-2, 6-4). “Despite his speech very focused on clay, where he says that it is his favorite surface, we have seen him still very limited”, observes Clement. The talent is there, undeniable, but the Greek’s lack of consistency is enough to doubt his ability to lift the Coupe des Mousquetaires in a few weeks.
Rune and Sinner, fresh but tender flesh?
Their semi-final on the Rock gave a glimpse of the future. When Alcaraz is on the flank, these two hold the keys to clay for the next few years. If the Dane emerged victorious from the duel stamped “next gen” (1-6, 7-5, 7-5) before folding in the final, the Italian has demonstrated for several months a constancy and adaptability that impress. Enough to claim the Parisian throne?
“Nothing is impossible” for Arnaud Clément, even if the latter has some reservations: “A Djokovic or a Nadal in full possession of their means, on a Grand Slam, it remains the strongest. For these young people who arrive, we know that they will probably have to take out one or two of these players to win Roland- Garros this year”.
