“Since January, we have seen what will probably be the last Russian initiative in Donbass that is still possible in this war. This initiative is doomed to failure because the Russians are gradually running out of materials and people,” explains Keupp in an interview with the ”
New Zurich newspaper
“ (NZZ).
At the same time, Ukrainian soldiers in the west are completing their training on the western tanks. “That means we can expect a Ukrainian counter-offensive with Western tanks in mid-April,” Keupp told the NZZ.
“That will be the moment when the Russian defeat becomes apparent”
In the interview, the expert also shows how he believes this offensive will proceed: “Ukraine will probably advance from Zaporizhia via Melitopol to the Black Sea coast, thus splitting the front into two parts. With a swing to the west, they could then encircle the Russian units between Melitopol and Nowa Kachowka.”
According to Keupp, such a push allows Ukraine to position Himars missile launchers on the coast, from where they can “fire and disrupt the logistics” of Russian positions in Crimea. “That will be the moment when the Russian defeat becomes apparent.”
In addition, Keupp uses a tank calculation to explain how he came to the conclusion that the war was decided in October. In an interview with the “NZZ” he talks about estimates by western military analysts. Accordingly, at the beginning of the war, Russia had 2,900 deployable main battle tanks.
Keupp’s tank bill: “Enough for a maximum of 211 days of the war”
He offsets these against estimates by
Oryx collective
. This uses visual evidence to estimate the casualties suffered by Russians and Ukrainians in the war. “Here we are today at 1845 tanks that Russia lost – so about 5 per day of the war,” Keupp explains. “The remaining reserve of 1055 pieces is enough for a maximum of 211 days of the war.”
The end of October is in 211 days – if Keupp’s calculation comes true, Russia will finally run out of tanks in October. And in his opinion, the bill is “still conservative”, the military economist explains to the “NZZ”. As soon as Western tanks arrive on the battlefield and the Russian army has to resort to older models at the same time, the technological advantage is likely to increase the casualties of the invaders, according to Keupp.
