The central bank registered this Friday, January 13, a Buyer net balance of US$200 million in the official exchange market. This is the largest volume acquired so far this year and since the end of the soybean 2 dollar scheme.
This way, The monetary entity accumulates in the first two weeks of 2023 an amount of net purchases for US$281 million.
The BCRA’s biggest purchase of dollars of the year occurred while, in the informal market, the blue was making a jump that led it to quote at $370.
In this field, economists do not see a sudden jump in the official dollar as likely as it is an election year, but they do they predict greater stocks, via restrictions on imports, and new differential exchange rates.
For most analysts, there will be a 3 soybean dollar that will allow reserves to be accumulated in a scenario of currency scarcity due to the impact of the drought and excess pesos due to the large monetary issue in December, which could begin to put pressure on the parallel dollars, especially from February, when the demand for money begins to fall.
After the end of the soybean dollar 2, the BCRA accumulated a purchase balance of US$61.5 million in the first week of the year
In addition, analysts warn that there will soon be greater pressure on reserves due to payments to bondholders of debt in dollars and to the IMF.
On Monday, January 9, the Government paid US$1,018 million in bond interest coupons of debt in dollars to private creditors.
That day it also canceled a maturity with the IMF for US$1,248 million, but in the remainder of the month there are two more payments to the international organization: one on January 16 for US$624 million and another on January 30 for u $656 million.
Added to this is the impact of the drought that will lead to less sales in agriculture. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange this week projected that exports from the five main grain chains affected by the drought could fall between 21% and 33% compared to the 2021/22 campaign, equivalent to decreases in income between US$9,226 and US$14,115 million.
Given this scenario, Sebastián Menescaldi, director of Eco Go, assured that “reserves are going to fall sharply in the next two months”, for which he estimated that the BCRA “is going to lose about US$80 million a day in the MULC” in that period, “which can also generate noise in financial dollars“.
PPI analysts also expect in the short term “sales (of the BCRA) will come before a liquidation of agriculture that will remain at a minimum until April.” Emiliano Anselmi, PPI analyst, calculated that the The BCRA will sell about “US$1,000 million per month during January-March, with which it could lose between US$4,000 and US$5,000 million in the summer.”
They anticipate that the BCRA will return to selling dollars in January due to greater pressure on reserves for payments to bondholders and the IMF
BCRA dollars: a challenging goal for this year
The goal of reserves committed to the IMF for 2023 is to add US$4,000 millionof which US$500 million should be accumulated in the first quarter of the year.
An analysis of Aurum Values raised that “the BCRA’s ability to accumulate foreign currency seems extremely challenging”given that “the drought that has already wreaked havoc on the production of the fine crop threatens to continue affecting the production of the coarse crop.”
About, Jeremiah Morlandidirector of Public Policies of the Center for Economic Studies Argentina XXI (CEEAXXI), indicated that “in the case of wheat, there are already 640 thousand hectares lost, in the core region 40% of early corn and almost 40% of the soybeans planted are in poor condition due to the high temperatures and the lack of rain”.
“The yields of planted soybeans are between 50 and 60 percent below the historical numbers. In 2022, agriculture liquidated more than US$40,000 million. In 2023, we’re going to be at $30 billion if we’re lucky.”Project.
Dollar: are more stocks and new exchange rates coming?
Against this background, the consultant GCL stated: “We do not see it as probable that the Government decides to voluntarily advance in an abrupt correction of the official exchange rate, even less in the middle of the electoral campaign, and we understand that the dilemma between devaluing or restricting foreign purchases will once again be settled through greater/new restrictions and with the policy of multiple exchange rates”.
menescaldi agreed that “the goal of accumulating US$500 million for the first quarter is going to be difficult. We will have to see what rabbit the government pulls out of the hat, or if restricts very strongly the importsbecause they don’t want to devalue.”
Economists foresee greater restrictions on imports to take care of reserves
With the same diagnosis, the consultant fmya He pointed out that “the supply of agricultural dollars until April is seasonally low, added to the advance for soybean dollars, and the BCRA has to meet the IMF goal of US$7.7 billion in March 2023, with US$7 .700 million net reserves today”, so “surely you will have to opt for more stocks”.
“Since January the soybean dollar ended and the BCRA is taking care of reserves. Companies continue to have problems importing, and they will continue to do so. Three months are coming where imports will be more limited”he predicted.
Fernando Baeran economist from Quantum Finanzas, maintained that “a devaluation with the current level of reserves and monetary imbalances would be disastrous”, with which he also believes that the Government, “probably try to stimulate foreign exchange inflow with some type of differential exchange rate” and speculated that it could be “for the energy industry”.
Anselmi agreed that the government will seek to avoid a discreet jump in the official dollar and will be inclined to further restrict imports. Activity will suffer, but a devaluation is the last thing they are going to do.”
In addition, Tobias Pejkovichan economist at Facimex Valores, believes that “the economic team will try to implement other differential exchange rate schemes” and stressed that “it must be taken into account that so far they were implemented in the last month of each quarterthat is, in the periods relevant to the targets” with the IMF.
For his part, in Aurum Values evaluated that “other additional sources of foreign currency income could come from new versions of differential exchange rates” but “the problem is that other export products that could help to obtain significant income have more impact on the ‘table of the Argentines’ with unwanted effects on prices”. And he emphasized that “these would be the cases, for example, of the launch of a ‘corn dollar’ and a ‘meat dollar'”, he emphasized.
Economists believe that there will be a soybean dollar 3 when the heavy harvest arrives in order to accumulate reserves
Will there be a “soybean dollar 3”?
Faced with the complex scenario for reserves, economists agree that the most likely thing is that there will be a soybean dollar of 3, probably between April and May, to take advantage of the flow of the thick crop.
In this sense, Salvador Vitelli, a specialist in finance and agribusiness, argued that “since the producer has already seen that when the potatoes burn, the Government offers a more competitive exchange rate to be able to capture the dollars he needs, he will try to liquidate only what is essential to cover his expenses and, then, it is going to wait for a dollar that is more attractive than the official one that is in arrears”.
in tune, Morlandi stressed that “with the soybean dollar they broke the incentives that agriculture has in general to liquidate; the game will now consist of holding out and not liquidating more than necessary and pressing for a special exchange rate“.
Vitelli He alleged that “although there has been talk of other types of differentiated exchange rates for other sectors, the reality is that there is no export complex that can offer the liquidity and the amount of dollars for agriculture,” for which he opined that “they will continue” with that differentiated scheme for the sector”. The specialist speculated that this measure will be implemented “after the coarse harvest to encourage liquidation when there is more currency supply”.
With the same diagnosis, anselmi pointed out that “probably they have to offer something for the coarse harvest, I imagine that they will wait if, due to the same seasonality, the agriculture begins to liquidate, and if they see that the field retains a lot, they will surely offer a soybean dollar 3 in May”.
for the economist Natalia Motyl, “the dollars provided by the soybean dollar 2 will run out by March, so it is likely that they will resort to the soybean dollar 3 to achieve greater collection at a time when they will need it to get through the election year.” The Economist Frederick Glustein He agreed “that it may be an electoral measure, to be calm before the STEP” and he also speculates there could be an exchange rate for “regional economies, especially for wine, which was affected by the late frosts.”
