The NHL column: Dallas has transformed from a defensive gang to an offensive scoring machine – now the “blue and white” Stars are a Stanley Cup favorite

Exactly one year ago, only five teams had scored fewer goals than Dallas – today, only one team has turned on the red light more times. The “Blue and White” Stars have somewhat stealthily grown into a Stanley Cup favorite.

The NHL podcast opens the new calendar year with “go west”. The Dallas Stars’ solid scoring form is getting well-deserved praise, while the outlook is rather bleak for the Western Conference’s other Finnish colony, the Nashville Predators.

When the Dallas Stars, with the help of Joel Kiviranta’s hat trick, made it to the Stanley Cup Finals in the fall of 2020, it was a surprise to say the least.

Kiviranta’s magical night in Game 7 against the clear pre-favorite Colorado Avalanche was just one of many completely unexpected threads in the Stars’ story inside the isolated playoff bubble.

For example, who would have thought that eternal assistant coach Rick Bowness in the fall of his age would coach a team to the finals?

Or that sophomore goalkeeper Anton Khudobin would act as a living wall in the playoffs and play 24 games when he had to take over the responsibility instead of Dallas star goalkeeper Ben Bishop?

Or that the then 21-year-old super talent Miro Heiskanen would make the highest-scoring playoff ever by a European defender? Heiskanen was noted for 26 points in 27 games.

The transformation from defensive “splatterer” to offensive engine

There are also much fresher items among the unexpected, or at least hard-guessed, in Dallas history. For example, the play the Stars have shown this season – under the leadership of new head coach Peter DeBoer.

Dallas has indeed lost two games in a row on their away tour in California, but it’s probably just a matter of a couple of weaker nights at work. In fact, after 40 games played (out of 82), the Stars are second in the West and fifth in the league.

The metamorphosis that Dallas has gone through is about how an ultra-defensive team, without a clear plan for a structured offensive game, has become an offensive juggernaut.

Twenty teams scored more goals than Dallas last season. With about half of the 2022-2023 season played, only one team has netted more frequently, the Stars. In concrete numbers: Dallas scored 118 goals in its first 40 games 21-22, now the net has rattled 139 times at the corresponding stage of the season.

How to explain the difference? The squad has barely changed – except that offensive game engine John Klingberg left the Stars. It is difficult to pick out any bigger reason than that the new coach DeBoer wants to see attacks with puck control and the whole five involved.

Rick Bowness saw guys in the Dallas squad who had no capacity for anything other than “dump and chase hockey”. In and of itself, he took them to the final with that system.

Now Dallas instead has a coach who has taken two of his last three teams to the Stanley Cup finals and one to the conference finals. That the best season was always his first is a possibility right now.

Glow first chain

DeBoer believes that Dallas has players who can play offensively driven hockey – and he seems to be right. The amount of goals and first place in the Central division are not accidental: the Stars have created the fifth most chances of all teams and are second in terms of expected goals.

Interesting detail: the expected amount of goals for Dallas is 138 goals – and the team has thus put the puck in the goal 139 times. Slightly surgical.

A really big part of Dallas’ clinically reliable scoring is the first string of Jason Robertson – Roope Hintz – Joe Pavelski. A young new superstar, a player in his prime and a scarred veteran.

The trio was already very good last year, but this season it is so hot that almost every opponent is burning their fingers with Dallas’ parade trio.

Perhaps the league’s best puck scorer, Joe Pavelski, has 12+26 in 40 games, Nokia’s best export this millennium, Roope Hintz, 19+25 in 39 games and the sensation of the 2017 draft class (39th pick) Jason Robertson all 26+29 in 40 games.

This trio has therefore accounted for 57 of Dallas’ total of 139 goals. Of all the league’s chains, which have regularly played together, Dallas’ first chain is clear first in goals per 60 minutes on the ice: 4.59.

The trio is a textbook example of players who complement each other and together become more than their parts.

Pavelski’s hand-eye coordination near the goal is astounding. The center Hintz is the centerpiece of the chain and a mobile and physically large “shooting” game engine. Robertson is strong with the puck, reads the game superbly and has a sharp shot.

For that matter, none of the trio came into the league as super promises: Robertson and Hintz were second-round draft picks (39th and 49th), while 38-year-old Joe Pavelski was picked in the seventh round in 2000 as the 205th pick.

You don’t always have to bet everything on winning the draft lottery.

Miro Heiskanen and Jake Oettinger

Despite the terrible first chain, the question is whether Dallas’ two single most important players are not in the team’s rear ranks.

Miro Heiskanen has this season taken a clear step forward in terms of offensive production (2020 playoffs excluded). With Klingberg gone, the 23-year-old from Espoo is the leading defender in all situations. It is clear that the role tastes.

Heiskanen averages just over 25 minutes per game and for the first time belongs to the ten most productive defenders in the regular season – he is on his way to 60-70 points. That could be enough for a Norris candidacy if Dallas goes strong all the way.

Sometimes it feels like Heiskanen plays too much. It is especially noticeable in his defensive game, which this season has not been as bombproof as before. Still, it seems that DeBoer wants Heiskanen to primarily direct the puck when the Stars attack.

A big reason why Dallas doesn’t need to be so hysterically defensive is that the team has a first keeper who is rarely weak. Jake Oettinger was reserved, just like Heiskanen, in the first round in the summer of 2017 and he too has lived up to expectations.

The almost two-meter-long bastard was really good last season and now looks to have established himself as an elite goalkeeper in the NHL. The save percentage is 92 percent and Oettinger has won the fifth most games in the league.

In addition, with “12.62 goals saved above the league’s estimated average” he is fifth in that statistic – and 84.7 is the eighth best save percentage for “dangerous shots” (High Danger Saves). So Oettinger not only looks like a safe rock to trust.

A big, young and winning first goalie is what every NHL team dreams of (just ask Tampa Bay).

Captain Jamie Benn Reborn

One more player has to be lifted up – and it’s a surprising “comeback kid”. The team captain, the 33-year-old physical heavyweight Jamie Benn, had already for several seasons looked like a player from a bygone era. He just didn’t seem to fit in today’s NHL.

Suddenly he is on his way to over 30 goals and almost a point per game. It is excellent for a player who averages just over 15 minutes per match.

The captain is especially valuable in two areas: Benn leads Dallas in power play goals with eight cones (seven goals in five-on-five) and has won 60 percent of the more than 400 draws he has taken.

A captain who can contribute such winning performances is hugely important to a team that has its sights set on a long spring. Especially since he was, quite frankly, a burden for Dallas last season.

Many bruises for the blue and white rough jobs

Behind the team’s key players are the upcoming stars Nils Lundqvist and Wyatt Johnson, “supporting scorers” such as the unlucky Mason Marchment and former first center Tyler Seguin (also slightly reborn), and a balanced group of hard-to-flirt team players.

From the last group, it is easy to lift Star’s Finnish hard workers. Joel Kiviranta is the most diligent tackler among the Stars’ forwards with 64 tackles distributed. That makes him second when the backs are also counted – unchallenged first place is Jani Hakanpää with 108 tackles.

Hakanpää, in turn, is second in the Stars in blocking shots. At the time of writing, the bastard has stopped 55 pucks with his body. First on that list is of course Esa Lindell with 71 blocked shots. The duo has also logged the team’s third- and fourth-most minutes this season, respectively.

Bottom line: Heiskanen, Hintz, Lindell and Hakanpää will play in the playoffs when Tampere again hosts the WC.

Thank you for reading.

Sources: nhl.com, naturalstattrick.com, moneypuck.com, hockeydb.com, hockey-reference.com