MEXICO CITY (appro).- Private analysts improved their economic growth forecast for the country from 2% to 2.2% in 2023, according to the Citibanamex Survey of Expectations (ECE).
According to the exercise applied to 34 private analysis houses, the Mexican economy by 2024 will slow down from 1.7% to 1.5%.
On the other hand, the consensus of the survey estimates an exchange rate located at 18.32 pesos per dollar at the end of 2023, a lower figure than the estimate of 18.70 from the previous survey, given the weakening of the greenback due to the pause in the increase in prices. interest rates from the Federal Reserve (Fed).
On the inflation side, expectations for the closings of 2023 and 2024 remained stable. The median estimate for headline inflation at the end of 2023 decreased marginally to 4.99% from 5.00% a fortnight ago, while for 2024 it dropped to 4.00% from 4.01%.
In this way, analysts estimate that the interest rate will be 11.00% by the end of 2023. The 34 ECE analysts project that the next move by Banco de México (Banxico) for the reference interest rate will be a cut .
“The median projection for said movement is a decrease of 25bp in December 2023, the same as a fortnight ago,” explained the Survey.
And it will be until 2024 when the rate is located at 8.50%.
The private houses of analysis agree with the Mexican Institute of Finance Executives (IMEF) in that the short-term outlook for growth has improved in relation to what was previously estimated.
In fact, the IMEF indicates that it is very likely that the Mexican economy will grow at a rate of around 2% in 2023.
“Economic dynamism comes from consumption and a relative recovery in private investment. The latter is barely reaching pre-pandemic levels, but is still below the average for the years 2012-2018. Exports have proceeded at a slower pace, mainly due to persistent exchange rate appreciation,” he explained separately.
