According to the Ukrainian Air Force, up to 20 guided aerial bombs have been dropped per day in recent weeks. The regions of Cherson in the south and in the border area with Russia and Belarus are particularly affected. “The Russians are dropping more and more of these bombs because their stockpiles of missiles are depleted. There are very few left, so they switched to cheap aerial bombs,” Yuriy Ihnat, spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, told Deutsche Welle (DW).
The US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently wrote that this could be a change in tactics by the Russian armed forces to reduce the risk of further aircraft losses. Because these guided bombs can be deployed beyond the range of Ukrainian air defense systems. Russian Su-35 jets could use this munition from a distance of 50-70 kilometers from the line of contact.
Inexpensive conversion of the bombs
According to reports, two different types of guided bombs are used by the Russian side. The more modern UPAB-1500B is used less frequently, not least because of its high production costs. Soviet-designed FAB bombs weighing 500, 1,000 or 1,500 kilograms were used more frequently and were still available in large quantities.
According to experts, these bombs are actually unguided, but can be converted comparatively cheaply. The production costs per kit are the equivalent of almost 22,000 euros, the news site Kyiv Independent reported, citing Russian sources. A Kalibr cruise missile with a 450-kilogram warhead and a range of up to 1,500 kilometers costs just under six million euros.
The bombs get wings and satellite control and are mostly used with Russian Su-34 and Su-35. The converted bombs are inferior to modern systems, according to the military expert at the Ukrainian think tank Center for Security Studies, Olexandr Kovalenko. But they are available in large quantities.
Ukrainian anti-aircraft defense with low chances
The current anti-aircraft defenses of Ukraine can hardly defend themselves against these bombs. “The anti-aircraft missile does not hit the object itself, but explodes next to it and pierces it with fragments,” Ihnat said. That usually doesn’t work with a bomb. The modern air defense systems recently supplied by the USA, the Netherlands and Germany were not enough.
In addition, the Ukrainian stock of fighter jets is falling, the “Economist” reported, citing a document that is allegedly part of the US secret service leaks. Ukraine has been insisting all the more – for months – on the delivery of western fighter jets in the west. So far, Ukraine has only received Soviet-designed fighter jets from the West.
Hardly any prospect of western fighter planes
Military expert Kovalenko is convinced that modern warplanes that operate with longer-range air-to-air missiles could best help Ukraine against the guided bombs: “Bombs are very difficult to hit, it’s easier to destroy the carrier yourself, that is, Russian ones airplanes.”
Western fighter jets are currently not in sight. US President Joe Biden firmly ruled out a delivery in January. At the meeting of the Ukraine Contact Group at the US Ramstein Air Force Base in Germany last week, there was no commitment from the West.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg only conceded that after more than a year of war, “new systems” for supporting Ukraine need to be discussed. But it is also necessary to ensure that the weapons that have already been delivered continue to function.
