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The Ukraine war is entering its second year. Many are wondering how it will end. The next few months are crucial. Three scenarios.
- The war started by Russia has been raging in Ukraine for almost a year
- Many people hope for peace – but what could such a thing look like?
- These scenarios for an end to the war are conceivable
What as Decapitation Strike and Lightning Surgery was created, develops into war of attrition. February 24th marks the anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. More than ever, the question arises as to when the Ukraine war will end. There is no unequivocal answer to this, but three scenarios.
Ukraine Crisis – The most important news about the war
When the war ends: Putin tests western resolve
A frozen conflict: It would only be the second-best solution for Kremlin boss Vladimir Putin, but a scenario with which he could “probably live just fine”, says former Bundeswehr General Heinrich Brauss in an interview with our editors. Militarily, this assumes that Russia achieves its minimum goal: the final conquest of the Donbas. Then you focus on defending your lines as best you can and bid negotiations and one armistice at. this is an option
- who Putin can represent to the Russians at home;
- for his opponent in Kiev, President Volodymyr Zelenskyj, is an impertinence;
- which makes it possible to further destabilize the whole region, in neighboring Moldova the fear of this is already real;
- which gives Russia the chance to regroup militarily and later attempt a second invasion;
- and which would cause controversy, especially among Ukraine’s western supporters.
How the war can end: Russia is waiting for the outcome of the major attack
The probability is currently low. The expected major attack has only just begun. The military expert Carlo Masala From the Russian point of view, talks only make sense if it fears that it will lose more than it will gain by continuing the war. So Putin, like Zelensky, will await your outcome. “The key will be on the battlefield over the next six months,” CIA Director William Burns said at an event at Georgetown University in Washington.
also read: Putin: Massive attacks and an ominous speech
A victory of Russia: The goal of every warmonger in Moscow. The Russians can prolong a war. They have proven this several times in their history. They have more people and more weapons than Ukraine. War as a test of willpower. The calculus would be that at some point the West would stop providing military aid and Ukraine would no longer be able to withstand the Russian attacks on its own.
“A large-scale conventional war amounts to attrition,” explained the Ukrainian-born US military expert Michael Kofman in the mirror”. A large part of this is about the question of how the armed forces can hold out – i.e. whether they can regenerate – and how quickly and well worn or used material can be replaced. “It’s all about manpower and ammunition.”
Ukraine war – background and explanations for the conflict
This is a scenario that could possibly drag on for years. And Putin not only that escalation dominance, but also to a certain extent, at least domestically, has the power to define. When is the war won? Maybe even with the conquest of the Donbas. US Chief of Staff Mark Milley says Russia is unlikely to overrun Ukraine. “It’s just not going to happen,” he told the Financial Times.
When will the war end: with or without loss of territory?
The Ukraine wins: So far, this goal remains imprecise. With or without loss of territory, with or without the Crimea? What speaks in favor of Ukraine is that it is better organized militarily, that its soldiers have better morale; and that they can push back the Russians with long-range precision weapons from the West. Milley says it is very, very difficult for Ukraine this year to “drive the Russians out of every inch of Russian-held Ukraine”. And it would essentially require the collapse of the Russian military.”
In any case, that presupposes that the West keeps up its arms deliveries or that Putin’s rule ultimately implodes after all. Millexy says “essentially it would require the collapse of the Russian military.” In each scenario, there are negotiations at the end. The only question in each case is from which position they are then led: from a position of strength or weakness? Former NATO commander-in-chief Wesley Clark in any case, sees the chance that an increase in Western military aid could put Ukraine in a position to defeat Russian troops and drive them out of Ukraine. You might also be interested in: Ukraine: Rheinmetall prevents drama with cheetah ammunition
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