Inflation in the United States reached 5.0% annual, below the expected 5.2% and 6.0% in February, confirming a slowdown in price increases. In this way, the CPI touches minimums of almost 2 years and yields for the ninth consecutive month.
In monthly terms, the price index rises 0.1%, a sharp drop compared to the 0.4% in February and less than the 0.2% expected.
The underlying CPI In year-on-year terms it rose 5.6% in March (as expected, one tenth more than the 5.5% of the previous month) and in monthly terms it rose 0.4% (also as expected, one tenth less than the previous 0.5%).
Although it remains high, the moderation of the CPI would be helping to alleviate some markets that are still very pending the decision on the reference interest rate of the Federal Reserve and the threat of a banking crisis in the US.
The calm in the financial sector in recent weeks seems to have removed, for now, fears of a new bank failure and has caused investors to return, once again, a look at inflation, which also gives the Federal Reserve a break today. The moderation in prices is bringing the end of the cycle of monetary tightening that is generating so much turmoil in the markets.
In this framemarket expectations are now that the Fed will raise interest rates by 25 basis points more at some point in the next two months to start lowering the price of money from then on.
For his part, The International Monetary Fund forecasts that average inflation in the US will be 4.5% in 2023 and 2.5% in 2024. So the expectation is that prices continue to reduce their growth (disinflation) in the coming months to make this forecast correct.
