Among other things, the secret US documents provide information about the weaknesses of the Ukrainian and Russian military. Above all, it becomes clear that Ukraine’s enormous shortage of ammunition could turn the war situation around. The number of victims on both sides is also discussed. The details of the war documents at a glance.
The leaked US documents first appeared in video game chat rooms, then made their way to other social media. So now the whole world has access to more than 50 top-secret Pentagon papers, which contain, among other things, sensitive information about the internal processes and conditions in the Ukrainian and Russian military.
Kyiv reacts angrily, Moscow interested
The government in Kiev is visibly upset about this, reports the US broadcaster “CNN”. The country has already changed some of its military plans, the broadcaster said, citing those close to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. And the Kremlin? “The leaks are reasonably interesting, everyone is studying, analyzing and discussing them broadly,” Putin spokesman Peskov said on Monday.
US officials say the content of at least one of the dozens of pages has changed. Nevertheless, they confirm the authenticity of the documents, which reveal numerous weaknesses of the Ukrainian military and strategies of the Russian armies. FOCUS online, based on reports from the ” New York Times “, „ Washington Post ” and ” CNN ‘ summed up the main points.
One of the leaked documents contains figures from the US secret services on casualties up to February 2023. According to this, the Russian armed forces had suffered 189,500 to 223,000 casualties by February, including up to 43,000 casualties. Ukraine’s casualties, on the other hand, would range from 124,500 to 131,000, including up to 17,500 killed, the report said.
The details of the documents about the vulnerabilities of the Ukrainian military
ammunition and war equipment
Russian attacks have caused a huge shortage of ammunition on the Ukrainian side. The Ukrainian army is constantly approaching dangerously low stocks.
- On the one hand, this applies to the artillery. So far, the Ukrainian military has fired a million rounds of western-supplied 155mm artillery. Without the continuous subsequent deliveries, the stock would be used up within a few days.
- Ammunition is also extremely scarce for air defense, the documents say.
- The stockpiles of missiles for the S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which account for 89 percent of defense systems against fighter jets and bombers, are expected to be used up by mid-April and early May at the latest. These values are based on current consumption rates.
- On the other hand, the air defense projectiles for the US Nasams will be exhausted by April 15th. The deadlines for the SA-11 and SA-8 systems are April 13 and May 8.
- Without ammunition replenishment, the entire air defense network could soon collapse.
- In addition, the documents predict that by May 23, the part of Ukraine’s air defenses that directly support troops at the front lines will be “completely reduced” by the Russian Air Force.
- There is also the problem of war equipment: while Russia is currently using 485 fighter jets in the war, Ukraine can only use 85.
- As of now, Ukraine could only withstand two to three waves of Russian attacks with drones and missiles .
consequences
In view of the lack of ammunition, the documents outline disadvantages for the Ukrainian army. Should air defenses be eroded, the Russian Air Force would be able to move more freely to launch attacks and move troops. The Russian missiles would then be launched along more useful and direct routes. Also, Russian troops could use planes more effectively to attack Ukrainian soldiers.
The Ukrainian military could therefore have problems assembling troops for such operations. In addition, air surveillance would be significantly more difficult, and there would also be a lack of aircraft to support the troops near the ground. Consequently, the Ukrainian army would not be able to overcome “Russian air superiority”.
The Ukrainian army would therefore have to protect potential attack targets at the expense of other, unprotected targets – including possibly more civilian ones. A document reveals a map on which yellow dots are marked. They represent air defense systems positioned near critical infrastructure. Red dots, on the other hand, indicate unprotected locations. According to a forecast for May, the number of red dots in these places will increase. The Ukrainian Air Force therefore expects the destruction or short-term failures of some air defense systems.
Possible solution to the problem
In order to prevent this scenario, a document brings forward the “FrankenSAM” program into play. This program could refer to an improvised system of various components for launching surface-to-air missiles. The weapons used here are, for example, the US Sea Sparrow missiles. They will be modified for use with the Buk air defense systems. These Soviet defense systems typically use ammunition, which is primarily produced in Russia and is therefore difficult to obtain. Adapted rockets can additionally counteract the ammunition shortage.
What the documents say about the military situation in Russia
Attack plans and troop movements
The Russian vulnerabilities also reveal the documents based on intercepted communications and the statements of informants.
- Among other things, they show maps on which Russian troop movements and capacities are recorded.
- In addition, the documents contain detailed attack plans with information about which thermal power plants, substations, railway and car bridges the Russian troops intend to attack and when.
Dealing with NATO tanks
The Russian strategy for fighting NATO tanks in early April is also revealed.
- Accordingly, three fire zones are to be set up based on short, medium and long distances.
- Each zone is covered by special weapons and troop units.
- There should also be a bonus for Russian troops when they damage or destroy NATO tanks.
- This financial incentive is part of a series of initiatives designed to help Russian deployments and boost troop morale. In the process, the soldiers are to be informed about the weak points of the NATO tanks.
Wagner group
The renewed recruitment of Russian prisoners for the Wagner mercenaries is also a subject of the documents. The “continued influence” of chief Yevgeny Prigozhin and plans to expand the mercenary group’s presence in Haiti and Africa are also highlighted. A document is also said to have stated that Prigozhin’s employees tried to buy weapons in Turkey for use in Ukraine and Mali. The USA knew about the process, but it is unclear to what extent Prigozhin’s efforts were successful.
