A counter-offensive against Russian troops, expected in the spring, could be jeopardized by deficiencies within the Ukrainian army, according to recently leaked American documents.
After months of Russian offensive, when will there be a Ukrainian response? The question returned to the debates on Tuesday, April 11, following the disclosure of confidential American documents suggesting various obstacles to the success of a possible counter-offensive launched by Kiev in the coming weeks or months. Here is what to remember from this new day of conflict.
Doubts over a Ukrainian counter-offensive
US intelligence has raised doubts about a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive that could only get “modest territorial gains” against Russian forces, according to press reports and documents seen by AFP on Tuesday. Leaks of secret US documents, most of which seem authentic, point to a lack of equipment and precision ammunition on the Ukrainian side, as well as air defense systems that have reached their limits, at the risk of leaving soldiers vulnerable to planes Russians. Ukrainian authorities were quick to play down the impact of the leaks, saying plans for a future counter-offensive were “still in development”.
A Russian law to facilitate enlistment in the army
Russian MPs have passed a law allowing mobilization orders to be sent electronically, a move that will make it harder to evade the military and make life harder for those who have fled abroad. Concretely, according to the Russian media, the mobilization orders will be sent via the Gosouslougy system, used by millions of Russians for a whole series of administrative procedures. Once the order has been sent, the mobilized person will be prohibited from leaving the country.
Until then, mobilization orders had to be delivered by hand to the mobilized, which allowed many Russians to ignore these summonses or to have time to move, or even to flee the country, as dozens have done. of thousands of men during the wave of mobilization in September to fight in Ukraine. Russian law provides for heavy prison sentences for those who do not join the army.
FSB accuses West of inciting armed rebellion in Russia
The head of Russia’s security service (FSB), Alexander Bortnikov, has accused Ukraine and the West of trying to incite the Russians to sabotage and armed rebellion. “Ukrainian security services and their Western bosses have launched an aggressive ideological and recruitment campaign targeting our citizens, especially the younger generation”, he said. These remarks refer to those, last week, of President Vladimir Putin, who accused the Western secret services of being involved in attacks “terrorists” in Russia.
Encouraging economic forecasts for Moscow
Despite the war in Ukraine and the sanctions, the Russian economy should resist again in 2023, according to forecasts published by the International Monetary Fund IMF, which anticipates growth of 0.7% this year, better than the 0.4% scheduled three months ago. While initially expected to face a sharp contraction in GDP in 2022, with a 6% decline, Russia ended the year in a 2.1% recession.
A cyberattack against official Canadian sites
A cyberattack claimed by pro-Russian hackers has taken place against Canadian government sites. Claimed by the NoName group on Telegram, it paralyzed several official sites for a few hours on Tuesday morning, when Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal was meeting his Canadian counterpart, Justin Trudeau, in Toronto. That “will in no way undermine our unwavering support for Ukraine”said Justin Trudeau, judging the timing of the hackers “not surprising”. This denial of service attack is reminiscent of the one recently suffered in France by the National Assembly.
