On the way to the presidential elections, the “youth vote” It is an issue to be carefully evaluated by the campaign teams. A new poll indicated that the Libertarian deputy Javier Milei leads all political figures in that segment of the population, where, however, there are conflicting opinions about the State, politics as a tool, and inflation, along with a surprising assessment of Cristina Kirchner.
This is a survey carried out by Clivajes Consultores on 1,395 young people between the ages of 16 and 29, through an online questionnaire from March 6 to 13, with a margin of error of 2%. The first data that the survey left is that all the leaders have more negative than positive image, including Mileiwho nevertheless is the one who reaps the highest positive image.
But the surprise of the survey arose from the He asks who these young people feel “most represented” among the best-known political leaders: Milei led the ranking with 20.4% while Cristina Kirchner came second with 14.8%. The data is relevant because the “young” electorate (which formally is the one between 16 and 35 years of age) is around 40% of the voter register.
The other leaders of the ruling-opposition spectrum were much further behind in that poll, which continued with the candidates for Together for Change Horacio Rodriguez Larreta (8,9%) y Patricia Bullrich (8.3%); the Buenos Aires governor and reference to Kirchnerism, Axel Kicillof (7.2%) and the exponent of the Left Front Myriam Bregman (5,6%).
The data is related to the measurement on the voting intentionwhich threw a 28.4% for the liberal parties (as reported by the survey), a 26.7% for the Front of All and the 20.8% for Together for Changebut it is surprising when contrasted with the opinions regarding politics and the State and the path to lower inflation, issues that mark an abyss of distance between Milei and Cristina Kirchner.
What do the youngest voters want?: This says the survey led by Milei and Cristina
Mercy is coming surfing polemicsAt least among the young. Different surveys show him leading the segment despite the controversy generated by some of his positions, such as the vote against early detection of congenital heart disease and the recent support for the proposal of Ricardo Bussi, his candidate in Tucumán, in favor of the free bearing of arms.
Milei led the survey in the preferences of the youngest electorate and surprised Cristina Kirchner
The Clivajes poll showed that although it continues to be a favorite among younger voters, the general opinion in this segment on, for example, how to lower inflation, coincides only partially with the libertarian proposals: 32.2% were in favor of “dollarizing the economy” as Milei stated several times but 33.7% chose the “stabilization of prices and wages”, a recurring theme in Cristina Kirchner’s speeches.
That technical tie also occurred between the level of trust in the state that this segment of the population has and the vision of the politics as “the best tool to transform the realityensure rights and achieve greater social justice”.
This description, which could be signed at the bottom by almost any of the political leaders that Milei includes as a “caste” that harms the country, and especially Kirchnerism, had a level of agreement of 51.3%while those who expressed themselves “strongly disagree” or “somewhat disagree” rounded off 36.1%.
On the other hand, when expressing his confidence in the State “as the main person responsible for guaranteeing the rights of the population”, the 50% of the young people consulted showed “some” or “a lot” of distrust and only 39.3% said they had confidence, something that is aligned with the discourse of the economist and deputy of La Libertad Avanza.
What are the main concerns in this segment of the electorate?
According to the Clevajes survey, the The biggest concern of voters between the ages of 16 and 29 is the economic crisis that shakes the Government and challenges the opposition, and which seems to acquire different dimensions in the perception of this part of society.
While 26.7% said they were concerned about “economic instability”, 15.6% pointed out the “lack of certainty” about their “personal future”. Then, 13% said that they are worried about “being able to finish their studies” and 12.9% expressed their concern about the “possibility of getting a job”. The four items are clearly related to each other.
Among the youngest, the opinions that distance Milei and Cristina coexist in equal parts
Meanwhile, 10.7% of those consulted indicated “insecurity” as their greatest concern, 8.5% said that they are concerned about “political speeches in general” and the 7.3% warned about “the social division in Argentina”.
A striking point of the survey was the consultation with young people about the request for Supreme Court impeachment trial that drives the ruling party. There, 31.5% considered that “it is a measure that arises as a consequence of political confrontations” and 29.6% thought that “it is necessary to improve the functioning of the Judiciary.”
only the 17.6% considered that it “harms the functioning of the Judiciary”while 21.3% did not issue any opinion on the subject.
The level of image of the leaders, a critical point
None of the political leaders who are today in the front line of the electoral race reaped in this survey on the youngest voters a level of positive image that is at least close to 40 points nor a favorable differential between the positive and the negative.
Milei set herself apart in the poll for having the highest positive image, with a 31.9% positive imagebetween “good” and “very good”, against a 41.5% negative and 23.2% regular. Who else approached him was the head of the Buenos Aires Government and candidate for Together for Change, Horacio Rodríguez Larreta, with 22.5% positive, 50% negative and 21.8% regular.
Cristina Kirchner was tied with the PRO benchmark by obtaining 22.3% positive image, 49.9% negative and 23.5% regular. He was followed by the ambassador in Brazil and candidate for the presidential candidacy in the Frente de Todos, Daniel Scioli, with 20.8% positive, 36.5% negative and 35.1% regular.
Milei garnered a higher positive image than the rest of the leaders in the survey, but a high negative
Kicillof showed in the survey 20.1% positive image, 41% negative and 31.1% regular, while the president Alberto Fernández reaped a 16.7% positive image, 55.6% negative and 20.9% regular.
Behind were the former president Mauricio Macri with 15.6% of positive image, 52.8% negative and 28.2% regular and the referent of the Left Front Nicholas del Cañowith 15.2% positive, 47% negative and 29.2% regular.
