But it didn’t happen. In its final statement, issued Wednesday night, NATO claimed that “Ukraine’s future lies in NATO,” but did not say when that future might begin.
Throughout the Russian invasion, the Western Allies have been concerned with approving what Kyiv has asked for: first, artillery; then Leopard tanks; after; F-16 fighter jets and then cluster munitions. Each time, what seemed at first to be off limits eventually came to be seen by some members as sensible and fair.
But NATO membership is far more important than military hardware, and it may be some time before Kyiv’s last wish is granted. So what exactly did Zelensky want from this summit? Were the demands of him realistic? And what did he end up getting?
What did Zelensky want?
Zelensky’s ambitions were clear: he would demand nothing less than full NATO membership for Ukraine.
At the July 2022 summit, their requests were less vociferous. Zelensky only launched his accelerated membership offer to join the alliance in September after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would recognize four Ukrainian regions – Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia – as Russian territory.
Coming on the heels of Putin’s remarks, Zelensky said Ukraine was applying for NATO membership “under an accelerated procedure,” meaning the Vilnius summit marks the first time the issue has been on the alliance’s agenda.
Under NATO’s open-door policy, any European country is free to apply, which is why its number has increased from 12 founding members to 31 today, soon to be 32 with Sweden’s accession.
Zelensky appeared before adoring crowds in Vilnius’ Lukiskes Square on Tuesday, on a stage festooned with the blue and yellow of the Ukrainian flag and a huge banner reading “#UkraineNATO33.”
Was the completed membership application realistic?
But while #UkraineNATO33 might have won applause in the Lithuanian capital, the prospect has been more chilling for the leaders of the alliance itself.
Let’s be clear about what it means to be a member of NATO. Article 5 of the Treaty enshrines the principle of collective defense, which means that an attack on one member is an attack on all.
Article 5 has only been invoked once in NATO’s history, after the 9/11 attacks on the United States. If Ukraine were to join today, with the Russian invasion underway, the Article would be invoked immediately, effectively dragging 31 countries into war with Russia.
US President Joe Biden made it clear before the Vilnius summit began that full membership was not yet realistic. Talking to Fareed Zakaira. In an exclusive interview on Sunday, Biden said there is “no unanimity in NATO on whether or not to bring Ukraine into the NATO family now, right now, in the middle of a war.”
“We are determined to compromise every inch of territory that is NATO territory. It’s a commitment we’ve all made no matter what. If the war continues, then we are all at war. We are at war with Russia, if that were the case,” Biden said.
UK Defense Secretary Ben Wallace echoed the US position, saying “we cannot have a new member in the middle of a conflict. That would only import war to the alliance.”
However, speaking to CNN from Vilnius on Monday, Wallace said that “whenever this conflict ends, we must be ready as quickly as possible to bring Ukraine into NATO.”
What would Zelensky settle for?
Zelensky and his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba, admitted months before the NATO summit that Ukraine cannot become a member of the alliance while it is still at war. Speaking at a news conference in Kyiv in February, Zelensky said that while Ukraine was “not looking for a NATO replacement,” he understood that “we will not be a member of NATO while the war is going on. Not because we don’t want (that), but because it’s impossible.”
Ahead of the summit, his sights were on a clear path to an unhindered alliance once the conflict ended, and a clear timetable for when Ukraine would be offered membership. On Tuesday, Zelensky issued a fiery public statement criticizing NATO’s “absurd” refusal to provide a timetable.
“This means that a window of opportunity to negotiate Ukraine’s NATO membership is being left in the negotiations with Russia. And for Russia, this means motivation to continue its terror,” the Ukrainian president said on Twitter.
But NATO’s refusal or inability to provide a timetable is understandable. In effect, the answer to “when will Ukraine join NATO?” is the same as “when will Ukraine win the war?” NATO has made it clear that the former cannot happen before the latter.
“The most urgent task now is to ensure that Ukraine prevails, because unless Ukraine prevails, there will be no membership issue to discuss,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told a news conference Tuesday morning. evening.
