The month of February will probably be positive-proiezionidiborsa.it
The current year for the stock markets has these historical probabilities: return between 15 and 20%, annual minimum in January and maximum between November and December. The barometer for the first week of the month and then for the entire month has confirmed this prediction for the time being. Then from time to time we will see if the price trend will continue to confirm or not what has just been written. What will February be like for the stock markets?
We write about other statistics
The average performance in February was +0.13%:
it was positive with a probability of 57% and a yield of +2.83%;
negative with a probability of 43% and a return of -3.27%.
Average retracement was -6.39%:
the maximum downward excursion was -23.29%;
the average increase was +8.24%;
the maximum bullish excursion was +28.62%.
The month of February is characterized by a first part of the month (the first 7 trading days) with a negative return, and in the remaining days from a positive yield although lower than that of January.
Average trend on a daily scale for the month of February-proiezionidiborsa.it
Probability that the annual low will be reached in February
Probability that a month is minimum or maximum-proiezionidiborsa.it
The probability is very low, and therefore, as per the annual forecast, it should still be confirmed for the month of February that January was at an annual low, at least for the moment, and as it could be for the rest of the year.
Average performance of the year based on monthly statistics
Average yearly performance of the Dow Jones as a function of month-proiezionidiborsa.it
What will February be like for the stock markets?
Chances are 80% that it will hit a higher low and high than January. The probability that the month is inside is very low. 30% chance it will make a lower low than January.
When to wait for a retracement phase?
The probabilities are higher that this could occur and last between 7 and 14/15 February, and then return to the upside. A first major correction during the year is expected and could last between 6 March and 6/7 April, and then go back up again. Chances will be high that April will hit a lower low than March.
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