Why Seat will disappear with the thermal and give way to Cupra

The Spanish brand of the Volkswagen group has begun its recovery driven by its premium label Cupra. A claw that could even eventually replace Seat in the automobile, leaving it the end of thermal and micro-mobility.

Funny atmosphere at the “Casa Seat”, the showroom-café located in the center of Barcelona and the place chosen to announce the 2022 results of the Spanish group. After the two years of covid, the recovery is underway with a turnover of 10.513 billion euros last year, up 1.257 billion, and a profit after tax of 68 million euros, which returns to the green after a loss of 256 million in 2021.

The “Seat SA” entity is therefore once again making a positive contribution to the results of the Volkswagen group, its owner since the end of the 1980s. Cupra which seems to take all the light during this event. Cupra, the manufacturer’s premium label, transformed into its own brand only 5 years ago.

Three new vehicles to come… exclusively Cupra models: with the Tavascan trio (100% electric compact SUV) for 2024, Terramar (hybrid compact SUV) and a 100% electric city car, a cousin of Volkswagen’s ID.2, for 2025.

For its part, Seat still does not have a 100% electric vehicle in its range (Cupra offers the Born, cousin of the Volkswagen ID.3), none planned (nor for that matter any new features for all engines combined), as well as a date for the transition to zero emissions (scheduled for 2030 at Cupra, 2035 at Volkswagen).

It must be said that the premium brand, which prefers to call itself an “unconventional brand” and which was launched by the current boss of Renault, Luca de Meo, in 2018, is beginning to reap the fruits of this daring bet.

However, the context remained complicated in 2022, with the war in Ukraine, the energy crisis and the sequel to the semiconductor crisis. And at a time of arbitration within the Volkswagen group, it is clearly not Seat that has been favored in the allocation of essential components to ensure deliveries. Unlike Audi and Cupra, which achieve better margins.

A good example of this situation is on a slide of the presentation of the results on which one can read that the sales of the trio Seat, Cupra and Audi are down 4% last year, from 474,000 to 455,000 units. But, if in this mix, Audi remained stable at 13%, Cupra’s share went from 17% to 31%… to the detriment of Seat necessarily. Figures not presented, but which can be easily deduced, overall Seat / Cupra, the share of the second has increased from 20% in 2021 to 42% in 2022.

A rise in power which is reflected in the average price of a vehicle at Seat/Cupra. From 14,450 euros in 2018, it increased by 547O euros (+38%) in five years to peak at 19,920 euros in 2022.

Something also to be less surprised when the boss of the two brands, the Briton Wayne Griffiths, predicts that Cupra will represent more than half of sales this year. Or even less when he declares:

“I’ve said it many times, the future is electric and for our company that means the future is Cupra.”

With such a context and statements that leave little doubt about the priority given to Cupra in the years to come, it is the fate of the Seat brand that therefore raises questions.

What future for the Seat brand?

In the short term, the new European anti-pollution standard, Euro 7, which must be applied from 2025 by tightening the requirements in terms of CO2 emissions, would potentially condemn the brand’s best-seller, the small SUV Arona. A potential catastrophe for this type of non-hybrid thermal models, and the related jobs, warns Wayne Griffiths, referring to “factory closures if the text is adopted as it is”.

Without going to this hasty end, the current range of Seat seems despite everything doomed to gradually die out. And if delivery times seem to have improved recently, a Leon still suffers from a lack of components, compared to the Volkswagen Golf… and the Cupra Leon.

Finally, the Seat factory in Martorell will assemble three electric vehicles from 2025 (see box): the Volkswagen ID.2, the Cupra UrbanRebel and the electric city car from… Skoda. The Czech brand of the VW group, which has an electrical product plan, thus seems much better armed than the Spanish.

A situation that would finally push Seat to act on its transformation into a “player of new mobility”. A name that already covers a certain reality with “Seat Mó”, which already markets electric scooters and scooters and soon a small two-seater vehicle, Citroën Ami style.

A future as a micro-mobility supplier that can make you smile, but which is also found at Renault with Mobilize. This dedicated subsidiary must notably also launch a successor to the Twizy, the “Duo”. The opportunity to recall that it was Luca de Meo who presented early 2019 the Minimo concept at Seat, which announced this future small electric vehicle without a license. At Cupra the automobile offer of the electric future and Seat the micro-mobility and the end of the thermal.

Synthetic fuels, or e-fuels, which would be the track favored by the Volkswagen group and Germany to give a little reprieve to thermal motorization, do not also seem to be an option for Seat / Cupra.

“Synthetic fuels seem to be an expensive solution in terms of price per liter so I think it may be of interest to premium brands like Audi and Porsche, slice Wayne Griffiths, but to see if mass production can lower the cost. .”

In any case, with a Cupra which will be 100% electric in 2030 and a Seat brand which could hardly rely solely on this “miracle fuel” for its near future, it seems that the premium student has already exceeded the generalist master.