Analysis by the China understander: why Xi suddenly stopped mentioning Putin’s favorite project
The planned Power of Siberia 2 pipeline is one of the most important infrastructure projects in Russia. While Putin never tires of touting the pipeline deal with China, there is not a single word about it in Beijing. Xi has good reasons for this.
Putin’s Russia depends on the drip of the People’s Republic. Since the invasion of neighboring Ukraine by Kremlin troops in late February 2022, Beijing has supported the Russian economy, not least through gas and oil imports. The rulers Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin declare that their friendship between their countries does not fit a sheet of paper.
But Beijing has been cold-blooded against its “No Limits” friend Russia when it comes to business. This can be seen particularly impressively in one of Putin’s mega-projects.
Putin’s pipeline plans with China: Not a single line acknowledged in Beijing
In the course of the meeting between the two dictators in Moscow, Valdimir Putin never tired of praising three new pipeline and gas production projects between the state-owned company Gazprom and the People’s Republic. What in the statements of Russian-controlled media sounded as if everything was already done was not acknowledged in Chinese propaganda organs.
There are many reasons for this: On the one hand, it seems unclear who will bear what costs for the mammoth project called “Power of Siberia 2”. It was planned that the almost 100 billion euro, 2,600-kilometer-long pipe would transport around 50 billion cubic meters of gas annually via Mongolia to China from 2030. But now Beijing is silent on the project.
The Xi regime seems to want to avoid longer-term and large-scale investments in Putin’s empire, which could indicate that the CP, despite paying lip service to Putin, considers his rule unstable.
The “Power of Siberia 1” pipeline is already pumping gas to China, but only about half as much as was pumped to Europe through the Nord Stream pipeline.
Until recently, Russia had all eyes on the European market. Ships needed to construct the pipelines at sea were sent to the Baltic rather than the Sea of Japan, through which another pipeline for China is to flow. Since these capacities were not used properly, Moscow is now considering a construction by Mongolia. The democratic country is wedged between China and Russia and lives from exports to both countries, so that it will hardly be able or willing to evade this project.
The CP does not want to become dependent on Putin for energy like the Europeans
The fact that Xi is keeping Putin at a distance when it comes to pipeline construction is shown by the fact that a similar project was contractually agreed with Turkmenistan comparatively quickly and pragmatically. In addition to Turkmenistan, Beijing has also signed long-term agreements with Qatar.
It seems that the CP does not want to become dependent on Russia, like the Europeans, for its energy security. It seems plausible that the big pipeline projects that Putin brings up at every opportunity will never get past the loose planning stage – simply because China doesn’t need Russian gas at all.
Contrary to what Putin might want to admit, the relationship between Beijing and Moscow is not a partnership of equals. Neither are the two dictatorships really pursuing common, long-term interests, apart from the overriding, shared aversion to freedom and democracy.
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Putin only plays a minor role in Beijing’s master plan
Beijing is only trying to stabilize Putin’s dictatorship so that there are no revolts or democratic upheavals there. Because Xi finds nothing worse than “color revolutions” that establish a better alternative to a Beijing-style dictatorship under the banner of freedom.
Some observers also see Xi’s delay as a sign that Beijing does not want to completely spoil the free world. This insight is also wrong. Because Xi never tires of signaling his army to prepare for war. And he’s doing everything to make his country self-sufficient – from grain security to decoupling the economy from the US dollar.
In any case, Putin only plays a subordinate role in Beijing’s master plan. Xi will dump Putin as soon as he is no longer useful to him.
About the guest author
Alexander Görlach is Honorary Professor of Ethics at Leuphana University in Lüneburg and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs in New York. After stints in Taiwan and Hong Kong, he has focused on the rise of China and what it means for East Asian democracies in particular. From 2009 to 2015, Alexander Görlach was also the publisher and editor-in-chief of the debate magazine The European, which he founded. Today he is a columnist and author for various media. He lives in New York and Berlin.
