He office real estate segmentfor the first time, since the pandemic began (in 2020), it begins to show signs of a solid recovery, since different regions report a more accelerated decrease in the availability of spaces, which for specialists, traces the route to that next year his total rehabilitation will be consolidated.
At present, throughout the country, there are 737 corporate real estate first category (Class A and A+), which represent 10.3 million square meters (m2), with a vacancy rate of 23%, according to Claudio Gómez, director of Market Intelligence at Colliers Mexico.
The largest markets in the country (Mexico City, Monterrey, Guadalajara and Querétaro) had a reduction in square meters of offices gaps of between 17.2% and 2.9%, at the end of the first quarter of 2023, compared to the same period last year, according to the Datoz platform.
Sergio Mireles, general director of the firm, said that this was achieved by containing the start of construction of new projects, in addition to a boost from the relocation of companies (nearshoring) that has benefited the industrial real estate sector, and is beginning to have a positive effect on the corporate segment.
“The historic takeover of industrial real estate has had an impact on The officesespecially in the north. In Mexico City, the impact has not been of the same magnitude, but we also see movement,” said the expert.
In this way, specialists from Datoz and Colliers agree that the market will recover its pre-pandemic levels next year and said recovery would only be threatened by a global economic recession.
“The recovery will happen, if everything remains the same. There are gray clouds in terms of the macroeconomic outlook that could have a negative effect on the office demand, when the commercial relationship with Mexico deflated. Other than that, we don’t see anything that could be an obstacle to the recovery of the sector,” Mireles said.
CDMX, with a surplus of 1.5 million m2
Mexico City, the market that concentrates 80% of the corporate spaces of the country, had a downward adjustment of 2.9% in availability, by reducing 80,000 square meters of available space between 2022 and the first quarter of 2023.
However, Mireles commented that there is a surplus of 1.5 million square meters in the capital, when compared to the first quarter of 2020, so about half of the spaces that are being marketed today should be absorbed for a full recovery. .
“We will continue to see a commitment from the owners for greater contractual flexibility, in order to be able to attract tenants because the competition is strong,” said the specialist.
According to the platform’s monitoring, there are various companies in the process of negotiating to rent offices in the coming months, the majority belong to the manufacturing, technology and call center segments.
In the first quarter of the year, the Mexican capital reported a solid start, since the accumulated gross absorption (occupancies) was 65,358 square meters, for which the activity in the market increased 193.6% compared to the first quarter of last year .
Monterrey shines for nearshoring
Monterrey, the capital of Nuevo León, has been noted for rising demand, even exceeding the levels registered before the Covid-19 pandemic, according to Pablo Quezada, director of New Products at Datoz.
Year after year, availability fell 12.4%, since 50,000 square meters were occupied in the last 12 months, when leased by logistics and manufacturing companies.
Although Monterrey has not managed to recover pre-pandemic levels either, by reporting a vacancy of 16.28%, the Monterrey city remains active thanks to the dynamism of the nearshoring.
“The phenomenon of nearshoring is becoming aggressive in the industrial part, but it is permeating, although at the wrong time, in the part corporate. The effect of the investments that are coming will not be immediate in this segment, but it is a fact that companies are going to need more office space,” said Claudio Gómez.
Guadalajara, one step away from pre-pandemic
For its part, Guadalajara, in the first quarter of the year, had a 7.9% reduction in the availability of spaces.
Higher takeovers and zero start-ups of new projects contributed to the market reaching a vacancy rate of 16%, just one percentage point away from reaching pre-pandemic levels.
“There are companies of nearshoring or call centers that seek to establish themselves in Mexico to serve the Latin American region. Guadalajara is the city that is taking an important part of these firms, so the vacancy rate has been adjusting downwards in recent months,” added the Colliers analyst.
Finally, Querétaro had just over 100,000 m2 available, that is, an availability rate at the end of the quarter of the year of 12.70% of its total inventory, its lowest level, even, before the Covid-19 pandemic.
“Querétaro has had six periods of low availability, but the demand has not recovered and has not been constant. What has happened is that the delivery of new projects is completely paralyzed and because it is a small market, demand affects availability”, explained Mireles.
