– They have some reserves, but not enough for a major offensive, says head of the land force section at the Norwegian Military Academy Palle Ydstebø to TV 2.
At the beginning of February claimed Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov that as many as 500,000 new soldiers had been mobilized by Russia, and that they were planning an offensive that could start as early as February 24 – one year after the war began.
Two days before the commemoration, no major accumulation of forces beyond those already engaged has been reported, according to Ydstebø.
This is particularly true in Luhansk and Donetsk, which are believed to be the targets of a new Russian offensive.
– Whether this date means anything at all is uncertain, there were no hints in Putin’s speech yesterday that it would mean anything. We cannot rule it out, but it does not appear that anyone has announced anything special that day, he says.
– Much of the same
Putin’s biggest speech in two years contained little new information about Russia’s military strategy, and was very general, according to Ydstebø.
– It was a lot of the same, without concrete things coming out about ambitions, goals, strategies or anything like that on the military side, he says.
– Too much mud
A year after what was supposed to be a quick conquest of Ukraine by Russia, the parties are now engaged in a war of attrition that can last as long as resources allow.
Ydstebø does not believe that we will see a major offensive in the war until the spring, when the ground has dried and you can drive heavy combat vehicles off the roads.
– It is demanding now. There is too much mud, he says.
This is also the reason why there has not yet been a major winter offensive, according to the lieutenant colonel. This year’s winter has been milder than normal, which has meant that there has not been a proper tele in the ground.
– In the spring, everyone expects that there will be offensive attempts from both parties, he says.
