Bremen election: A strong SPD and a quake in the Hanseatic city

Analyse

Bremen has voted. The 683,000 citizens of the smallest federal state have cast their votes. The cities of Bremen and Bremerhaven, which belong together, have been under the leadership of the SPD for 77 years. For the past four years, the SPD, the Greens and the Left have jointly provided the Senate. The governing mayor and thus Prime Minister of Bremen: Social Democrat Andreas Bovenschulte.

In Bremen, that’s for sure, things are going a little differently than in Germany as a whole. The AfD, for example, was not even allowed to compete, the SPD was far ahead in polls, contrary to the national trend. What really remains of the election, watson clarifies for you.

Der Bovenschulte Effect

Apparently the previous SPD mayor Andreas Bovenschulte is doing something right in Bremen. Because the result of the SPD at 29.8 percent is not only better than the nationwide trend – but also than the Bremen election result of 2019.

The approval for Andreas Bovenschulte is great.Image: dpa / Sina Schuldt

At that time, the SPD got fewer votes than the CDU, but Bovenschulte still managed to form a red-green-red government together with the Greens and the Left. In this election, however, according to initial findings, the SPD is around four percentage points ahead of the CDU (25.7 percent).

The fact that the SPD is so much stronger than at the federal level is partly due to tradition, says Sebastian Schmuggler. He is the chairman of the Jusos Bremen. “The good result is also due to the work of the previous coalition – with Bovenschulte at the helm,” says Schmuggler.

Now we have to wait and see what the official end result will look like in the end. And it could be a few days before that happens. Instead of a ballot paper, there is a whole ballot booklet in Bremen. In total, citizens can cast five votes and thus elect entire lists or individual people. This means: The counting takes time, after all all notebooks have to be checked to see if there is still a cross hidden somewhere.

But one thing is clear even before the official final result: The responsibility of forming a government in the hands of the SPD. “As of now, no coalition against us is conceivable, and that’s of course a very good starting point for exploratory talks,” says Schmugler.

Continue like this or Groko?

And that raises the question: Will Bovenschulte decide to continue like this? And will the final votes even be enough? According to current projections, red-green-red should just about get the required majority in Bremen’s parliament.

An alternative would be a grand coalition of SPD and CDU. The Christian Democrats would be junior partners. A government coalition that Wiebke Winter would like. Winter ran together with Frank Imhoff as the top candidate of the CDU.

Of course, the CDU hoped for more, says Winter. Nevertheless, the result shows: The Christian Democrats can do big cities. But Bovenschulte brought a big bonus and high popularity ratings.

Wiebke Winter and Frank Imhoff entered the race for the CDU with a double top candidate.Image: dpa / Hauke-Christian Dittrich

“I would wish that the last four years of standstill in Bremen would not be repeated,” explains Winter. Because the SPD and the Greens had always gotten into trouble in the incumbent Senate. With a Groko, or as Winter calls them a “coalition of reason”, things could now go ahead.

Juso boss Schmuggler, on the other hand, is flirting with the previous government. But it is also clear that the SPD must explore with all possible partners. That also has to do with respect for the voters’ will.

Little slap for the Greens

It will not be enough for the combination of black and green that is often popular in the rest of Germany. Just as little for a two-party alliance of SPD and Greens. The eco-party is too weak for this with 11.9 percent in the Hanseatic city. The greens are below that nationwide trend. And compared to the Bremen elections in 2019, according to initial projections, they lost almost five percentage points.

The mood among the Bremen Greens on election night was depressed.Image: imago images/ dts news agency

“The result is totally disappointing for the Green Party,” says Lena Kramer. She is the spokeswoman for the Green Youth (GJ) Bremen. The surveys of the past few weeks had already announced such a bankruptcy, so she was not particularly surprised. Kramer does not see the reason for the poor result in the declining sympathy for the Federal Greens.

The Bremen elections, she says, are very much about local and state political issues. “We lost some voters by not delivering what we promised in some areas,” she says. Kramer cites the turnaround in traffic as an example.

The GJ is still in a good mood. The youth organization also ran a campaign during the election campaign with which they wanted to reach and politicize young people. And that was successful, says Kramer. Now the GJ is stronger and prepared for the many crises that are yet to come.

A big step to the right

Although mathematically there is still enough for red-green-red and thus for a left-wing government, the Hanseatic city has also taken a big step to the right. The coalition of citizens in anger (BIW) performed unexpectedly well.

The right-wing smallest party has almost quadrupled its result compared to 2019. According to initial projections by ARD, around 9.5 percent of those entitled to vote cast their votes in anger.

In Bremen, the AfD was not allowed to compete due to internal disputes. A gap that the BiW could obviously fill. And even hit it a bit. In 2019, AfD and BiW together came 8.5 percent. In the current election, the BiW topped this result. Bremen, it seems, has moved to the right.

The good result of the BiW frustrates Dariush Hassanpour. He is the Solid Left Youth candidate for citizenship. For him it is clear: The new Senate needs to address many of the issues that are now evidently driving people to vote for BiW. This means that the government must continue to pick people up where they are with social policy in the future.

For GJ spokeswoman Lena Kramer, the result is a clear assignment for the future Senate. She is happy that a left-wing alliance of the SPD, the Greens and the Left should still be enough – a Groko, she says, is not the right coalition to answer the urgent questions of social balance. Because Kramer makes it clear: The crises and inflation are putting an extreme strain on the smallest federal state, which could also be a reason for BiW’s good result.

Left can be happy while FDP trembles

On the other side of the spectrum, however, the Left is also reaping the rewards. If the party has been punished in state elections for some time, it is still rooted in Bremen as well as in the city-state of Berlin. She was able to almost keep her result with 11.1 percent.

Claudia Bernhard and Kristina Vogt (from left) have so far been the two left-wing senators in the government.Image: dpa / Focke Strangmann

The result is also surprising for Hassanpour, although he had hoped for such a strong left. “It’s unbelievable that we’ve managed to double our values ​​in the last three weeks,” says the Solid candidate. He says:

The reason for the good result is certainly the good work of the two left-wing senators, Claudia Bernhard (health senator) and economics senator Kristina Vogt.

The Liberals have less reason to be happy. With 5.2 percent of the votes, the FDP still has to tremble on election night. The liberals are thus continuing their downward spiral. Since the 2021 federal election, the FDP has not been able to celebrate success in any of the state elections.

In Saarland and Berlin, the Free Democrats even missed out on entering the state parliament.