China vs. USA: Hybrid war of the giants over Taiwan and the world

Analyse

For decades, the conflict between China and Taiwan. The People’s Republic does not see the democratic island state as an autonomous country, but as a renegade province and wants to reincorporate it. Taiwan’s greatest friend and supporter: the USA.

Again and again the conflict pops up and threatens to escalate. For example, when China conducts military maneuvers off the coast of Taiwan or invades Taiwanese territory. Since the Russian war of aggression in the Ukraine voices of concern are piling up: What if China Russia takes as a role model?

Xi Jinping visited Vladimir Putin in Russia. Could he take Putin as a role model for Taiwan? Image: Sputnik Kremlin Pool via AP / Pavel Byrkin

The military expert Ralph Thiele from the Institute for Strategic, Political, Security and Economic Consulting (ISPSW) has been dealing with the danger posed by China for years. In an interview with watson he says: “China thinks strategically.”

Is it realistic for China to invade Taiwan?

According to Thiele, the People’s Republic is planning long-term, even preparing military steps decades in advance. “Unification with Taiwan is like Korea or before Deutschland – a long-term but self-evident goal for China.” The realization of this goal is getting closer, “but one has strategic patience”.

China is taking on an observer role and is carefully examining what it can learn from the West’s confrontation with Russia in Ukraine. So far, this observation has given little incentive to consider Taiwan’s reunification in the short term. Thiel says: “The noise is greater than the real danger of a short-term armed conflict.”

And also:

So the argument will come?

In principle, experts assume that there will eventually be an invasion and thus a military conflict. However, Thiele does not believe in a big bang. He says: “This will not be a purely military attack. China works hybrid.”

By this he means that the People’s Republic is working towards its goal on a wide variety of levels. About to become People bribed with great influence; the government apparatus and the public are being worn down; political parties seeking reunification from Taiwan are supported. “And through this mix of hybrid influence, corruption and political movement, the narrative of ‘liberation’ is then propagated. In the sense of: In Taiwan, the people are oppressed, please China, help us,” explains the expert.

Will the US intervene?

“Nothing is 100 percent.” That’s what the American political scientist Andrew Denison from the “Transatlantic Networks” says when asked by Watson. “Sometimes ambiguity is a powerful deterrent.” The Chinese are therefore not sure that the USA will not make a military contribution.

Just recently, US President Joe Biden was asked by a journalist whether American soldiers would defend the Taiwanese in the event of an invasion. Biden’s answer: “Yes”. No president has answered such a question so clearly. Denison says: “The wording is clearer than before because the Chinese threats are also clearer than before.”

Thiele says: “Deterrence is based on credibility.” World politics is about power and prosperity, i.e. prosperity and economic recovery. The latter is currently in Asia decided between China and the USA. And the USA, in the course of their national and especially their economic interests, made a security policy promise: to protect countries like South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and many others from any Chinese aggression.

“The US is a prisoner of its own goals here: They have to support Taiwan – including militarily – in order not to lose credibility with their Pacific allies,” says Thiele. According to Denison, the US has also invested in Taiwan’s security and independence for decades. The ties and obligations with Taiwan are therefore broader and deeper than like with Ukraine.

If the US got involved, would that be a case of a NATO alliance?

Not really. But – as always – it also depends on how the real events are interpreted, says Thiele. If the Chinese sink a US aircraft carrier, it could be interpreted in different ways: one as a regional conflict that Europe has nothing to do with. On the other hand as an attack on the free West.

Group photo of NATO Defense Ministers at NATO Headquarters.Photo: AP / Olivier Matthys

According to Thiele, the US is currently trying to get the West politically behind it when it comes to China. You could build a narrative with that: Here an autocracy is fighting against the free West. Accordingly, an attack on a US aircraft carrier could be interpreted as an attack on the West.

“In other words, depending on how the situation is interpreted, this could become a NATO case, although it isn’t superficially one,” explains Thiele.

Is World War III imminent?

We are already in a global hybrid debate, says Thiele. But that doesn’t mean that we have to fear a Third World War in the sense of a global battlefield. The concept of security has expanded.

technology, economy, Gesellschaft – all these areas are already being attacked and defended in an aggressive system competition, explains Thiele. “Cyber ​​space, outer space, critical infrastructure or microchips on which the global economy depends” are areas in which “fights” are already taking place.

Could trouble spot Taiwan trigger a third world war?Bild: Xinhua / Lin Jian

The main producer of microchips is Taiwan. If an armed conflict broke out and production collapsed, the entire world economy would suffer. “Taiwan is now beginning to set up factories in Europe and America, in case there is such aggression on the part of China,” says Thiele. All such things are included in this discussion. Therefore, support from the USA must also be expanded accordingly.

Thiele also says:

The fight will take place over economy, likes and technologies. According to Thiele, the decisive world powers are China and the USA. In this respect, Taiwan is a possible next frontline state after Ukraine. Expert Denison considers the risk of escalation for a direct confrontation to be low.

There is potential for escalation between China and the USA, but it will not lead to a third world war. Image: AP / Alex Brandon

Because: China has been deterred militarily and cannot afford to decouple itself from the West. “Without energy and agricultural imports, without western markets and technologies, the Chinese would be in a fix,” he says.

According to him, China needs to exercise caution right now. through the war in Ukraine let the West be united and mobilized. But that doesn’t mean the US can ignore the risk of escalation. “Communication and crisis management must always be in full swing,” says Denison.