It’s true: everything is a party in the atmosphere of Chivas. Its fans are happy to see the team among the first four places in the general table, an exclusive site that separates the high society of Liga MX from those who must overcome the repechage dungeon, and some former players even see the performance with champion tints, as Jair Pereira, champion with El Rebaño in 2017, stated: “If they believe in themselves (the players) they can do something different (…) Let’s hope they can be well focused to be able to achieve what Chivas always wants, which is to be a champion,” he said in a recent interview with Halftime.
But behind that euphoria, there is a voice that envisions a completely opposite scenario: data. According to an analysis shared with El Economista by the consultancy specialized in soccer statistics, Underdata, the performance of the Guadalajara team corresponds to a team from the middle table and below, since its expected point value should be 42% less of the one who owns
“A piece of information that I always pay close attention to, especially in the regular phase of the tournament, to know how a team is going to finish, is the goal difference. Chivas has 21 points and a goal difference of +5, but if you go deeper into the information, in the expected points Chivas it should have 12 and in the expected goal difference it should be -2.1, something that does attract attention”, explains Luis Fernández, CEO of Underdata.
Until matchday 11 of the Clausura 2023, prior to the Mexico Classic against America, the Chivas They are in fourth place in the table with those 21 points, the product of six wins, three draws and two losses. It has the same units as sub-leader Toluca, only with a lower goal margin, since the Mexican squad has a balance of +12.
Guadalajara’s prominence includes unexpected victories such as the one on matchday 1 against Monterrey, whom they beat 0-1 despite the fact that their rival produced four times as many shots on goal (24 for 6). It was a similar case in their visit to Tigres, where they won 1-2 and, in the same way, the regios tripled the number of shots taken by the Guadalajara (20 against 7).
That is to say, the Chivas coach from the present Clausura 2023, the Serbian Veljko Paunovic, has found a formula to obtain points without his team being the dominator in statistics of possession, counterattacks and shots.
“Paunovic’s work in decision-making in match management is much more efficient for Chivas than in other tournaments, you can tell that he is thinking more about getting the result than playing nice. So the issue that they are better located in the table and that now they have better results is due to three components: what Paunovic contributes with the management of the match, what the team is being able to do on the pitch to withstand rival pressure and the other is even a bit of luck”, points out the specialist in data scouting.
The figures shared with this newspaper also make a comparison between the Chivas of 2023 with Paunovic and those of 2022 under the command of Ricardo Cadena. The results favor the former coach: 1.07 vs. 1.02 in expected goals, 13.45 vs. 12.45 in shots, 1.16 vs. 0.27 in counter-attack shots, 2.55 vs. 1.91 in one-on-one shots, 1.88 vs. 1.65 in efficiency with the ball and, one of the most surprising for the consultant, a 0.13 against -0.03 in expected goal difference (all are an average in 90 minutes).
Some of the variables in which Paunovic’s work is better than that of Cadena are depth progressions (46.45 over 44.87), in which the work of full-backs and wingers stands out, such as Alan Mozo, Cristian Calderón and Carlos Cisneros; also the shots allowed in counterattacks, which dropped from 1.05 to 0.91 and the recoveries from pressing, which rose from 26.61 to 28.36, emphasizing the work of midfielders like Fernando Beltrán and Rubén González.
“For me these Chivas are not how they are being painted and from the statistics you can see it clearly. It is a team that is being more efficient with how little it generates and with how much they are generating it is solving, but it does not have, from my point of view, options to become champion. These indicators in the medium term are not sustainable, you cannot be holding on all the time because then you break down and the bad results begin to arrive”.
However, the benefit of the doubt is on Paunovic’s points. Throughout the first 11 days of the Clausura 2023, it never left the top 8 of the table, unlike Toluca and América, other regular clubs.
In addition, the Serbian coach has imposed an internal discipline that is reflected at the league level, since he occupies fourth place in the Fair Play table with 22 accumulated points (Toluca is the leader with 18), from which he has only received 16 reprimands (the second fewest in the tournament) and a direct expulsion.
—If the statistics reflect fragility for Chivas, what are Paunovic’s virtues as group leader?
—“I perceive something that translates into the field: discipline. The team is more disciplined and it is something that seems silly but it can make a good difference for you, because discipline when training, playing and in general with your work as a footballer (…) He is taking the points with the knife between his teeth , enduring the pressure and knowing how to suffer, which goes a lot with the idiosyncrasy of the Serbs. That is what Paunovic has left Chivas the most, that in the face of adversity, don’t let yourself be defeated”.
The resilience of Paunovic and his players will be put to the test against América on matchday 12, despite the fact that history does not favor them, since Chivas has only been able to win two of the last 10 Clásicos (in any instance and stadium). Also, if the eagles win they will move away from the Guadalajara by two points in the table.
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