Berlin.
Is there any relaxation in the Ukraine war in 2023? Experts are counting on Putin’s willingness to negotiate, because he has an appointment problem at home.
The Russian President showed himself in the Ukraine war Wladimir Putin last stubborn. “I think we are moving in the right direction, we are protecting our national interests, the interests of our citizens, our people,” he said shortly before the turn of the year about the attack on Ukraine. A bluff?
In the course of 2023, according to experts, Putin is likely to take a new direction: he has a growing interest in the Ukraine war at least to mitigate – if not to end. The reason: In Russia there are presidential elections in 2024, according to the rotation already in the spring. Is Vladimir Putin or a possible successor candidate therefore ready for a negotiated solution to appease voters at home?
Ukraine Crisis – The most important news about the war
Russia Expert: Elections will have an impact on the course of the war
The Russia and security expert of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), András Rácz, told our editors: “The presidential elections 2024 will have an impact on the course of the war in 2023. It is unlikely that Russia would want to wage an intense war either before or during the elections.”
Rácz therefore expects that Russia the intensity of the fighting will decrease over the course of the year – also because the supply problems of the Russian army are likely to increase in the summer. “Therefore, there could be negotiations between Ukraine and Russia in the summer. I’m pretty sure we’ll have some sort of truce by the end of the year: hopefully with no fighting at all, or at least a lot less.”
Ukraine could soon launch a new counteroffensive
The Russia expert reminds that in previous years under the Minsk agreements several times armistice was agreed in eastern Ukraine: “The intensity of the fighting decreased at that time, but it did not end. It was a limited war, in which both sides had diplomatic relations, there was trade and energy supplies – and yet the fighting went on,” said Rácz. “In a year we will have such a limited war.”
But before that he expects fierce fighting. Ukraine could launch another counter-offensive as early as January or February. “The Ukraine has had the initiative at the front since August at the latest, it keeps Russia under constant pressure and thus prevents a regrouping or consolidation of Russian troops,” explains Rácz.
In the past two months, the annual mud season with lots of rain has prevented any major mechanized offensive operation. But when the real winter comes and the ground freezes permanently, such operations can begin again. “The Ukrainian army is much better for him winter equipped than the Russian ones, also thanks to extensive help from the West, for example with winter clothing. And the good training also strengthens the Ukrainian offensive power.”
Ukraine war – background and explanations for the conflict
Ukraine war: is Putin planning a second mobilization?
And the Russian side? Rácz says that Russia is not in a position to carry out major offensive operations in the short term: “They are short of soldiers, they have lost large amounts of equipment, thousands of training officers have been killed or wounded.” But probably in the spring, when conditions are better overall, is likely to make a new attempt for a major offensive in Russia eastern Ukraine undertake, possibly on several fronts with tens of thousands of soldiers.
There are rumors that Putin wants to initiate a second wave of mobilization. If you add the conscripts who were called up in the fall and the forces of the first wave of mobilization that have now been trained, “Russia could add 200,000 to 300,000 more in the spring soldiers available – albeit ill-trained and ill-equipped.”
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