David Frum: Axis of Evil historian shows why Ukraine shouldn’t negotiate
Since the beginning of the war, there have been repeated discussions about how Ukraine and Russia can negotiate a common peace. The US historian David Frum thinks this approach is wrong and gives five reasons why striving for negotiations is not effective.
The historian and journalist David Frum thinks little of the fact that Ukraine should negotiate an end to the war with Russia. Frum was a speechwriter for George W. Bush in the early 2000s and is credited with inventing the phrase “axis of evil.” This is what Bush called states that support terrorists and strive for weapons of mass destruction.
Historian David Frum does not believe that striving for negotiations with Russia is expedient
On Twitter, Frum describes in five points why the pursuit of negotiations does not lead to an end to the war.
- Since the end of the Soviet era in 1991, Russia has already fought several wars “across internationally recognized borders,” according to Frum. Two Chechen wars, two Georgian wars, the annexation of Crimea, the actions in Moldova and the interventions in Syria.
- According to Frum, it is often claimed “that all wars end in negotiations. But to this day, none of the many wars in post-Soviet Russia have ended at the negotiating table.”
- Most wars “froze into ongoing unresolved conflicts,” the historian explains. Russia confiscates the territory of other countries and then simply waits for sanctions.
- According to the political journalist, the wars waged so far have always ended “satisfactorily” for the Russian leadership. The “need for a formal negotiated solution” simply never existed.
- Frum concludes that Russia does not want to negotiate in the Ukraine war. “You still have Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk. They didn’t take the rest of Ukraine, but devastated and terrorized it.
Frum argues that Ukraine and the West need to be clear about Russia’s priorities. First, the Russians want victory, then a “frozen conflict” in the sense of a deadlocked war. Even the continuation of a hot war is still before a possible negotiated solution for the Russians. Unless all three of the previous options are impossible, Frum says, Russia will never engage in negotiations.
For Frum, there is only one way to bring Russia to the negotiating table
“The status quo is acceptable for post-Soviet Russia,” writes Frum. Pushing for a negotiated settlement would only promote policies “that give Russia an acceptable victory and leave Ukraine broken and vulnerable to Russian aggression.”
The historian explains that there is only one way to bring Putin to the negotiating table: “Russia really has to fear losing the war against Ukraine. Losing so disastrously that negotiations become an alternative for the Russian leadership.”
More weapons are needed for Ukraine
Frum also has concrete ideas about how Ukraine’s position can be strengthened. The country must be “armed to the point where the Russian leadership fears defeat.” Even clearer: “The way to thwart negotiations is not to deliver weapons to Ukraine.” And so the Russian leadership believes that they could get away with their illegal attack again.
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