Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan could lose to the opposition in the upcoming elections. Image: AP / Emrah Gurel
Analyse
It starts in a few weeks. The parliamentary and presidential elections are taking place in Turkey, and polls predict a close race. Accordingly, it could be close for the incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The outcome of the elections is also important for world politics.
Ukraine, Syria, NATO: Turkey as an important geopolitical player
Often ridiculed for its ambitions to become a great power, Turkey has developed into an important regional and geopolitical player. In the war in Ukraine Erdoğan likes to position himself as a mediator. Above all, Turkey is showing strength in the showdown for supremacy over the strategically important Black Sea.
In the summer of 2022, Erdoğan will meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Lviv. Bild: IMAGO/UPI Photo / Turkish President Press Office
In Syria Erdoğan wages war against the Kurds. As a NATO member, Turkey is causing a stir, for example by refusing to join Sweden. In addition, according to the United Nations as the largest receiving country for refugees. In view of these points, it remains exciting whether Erdoğan can prevail or whether the Turks will elect a new political leadership.
Watson explains in seven points who is challenging the incumbent President Erdoğan, why the elections could herald a turning point and which prominent candidate is fueling the rumor mill.
When is election day
The upcoming presidential election in Turkey is scheduled to take place on May 14, 2023. The president of Turkey, who is also the head of government, is determined.
How can Turks vote from Germany?
Turks abroad can vote from April 27th. According to the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) around 2.9 million people with a Turkish migration background live in Deutschland. About half (about 1.5 million) have Turkish citizenship and can therefore vote in Turkey.
The ballot boxes are located throughout Germany in the Turkish consulates general of large cities. Those entitled to vote must first register in the voter lists. The ballot papers from Germany are then counted in Turkey. The results will only be announced together with those in Turkey.
Who is participating in the elections?
The incumbent President Erdoğan is running with his Islamic-conservative AKP in alliance with the ultra-nationalist MHP and the small, nationalist-religious BBP. Much of the opposition has formed into an alliance of six led by the social democratic CHP. The opposition alliance has agreed on a challenger: Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. He is considered a reserved intellectual, but a good mediator with diplomatic skills.
Opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu is bringing a breath of fresh air to Turkey. Bild: IMAGO/Depo Photos
In addition to the CHP and the national conservative Iyi party, there are four smaller ones parties to the alliance of six, including the Gelecek Partisi (Party of the Future) of Erdoğan’s former companion and ex-Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu.
The pro-Kurdish HDP could play an important role. She has already announced that she will support opposition leader Kılıçdaroğlu under certain conditions and has refrained from nominating her own candidate, which strengthens the opposition alliance.
However, a prominent face from football could provide a moment of surprise.
Surprise Effect: This potential candidate creates rumours
As soon as this kicker hung up his football boots, he caused wild rumours. Ex-national player Mesut Özil is said to be a candidate for Turkey’s ruling party.
According to a report by the Turkish news portal “News7” the 2014 world champion is on the AKP’s list of candidates for the upcoming elections. Özil is said to be listed as a party candidate in Istanbul or Zonguldak. However, the article can no longer be accessed and may have been deleted.
Die Friendship between Özil and Erdoğan has been an open secret for years. For example, the ex-kicker invited the Turkish president to his wedding.
Erdoğan congratulates Özil’s bride at the wedding. Bild: Pool Presidential Press Service/ / Uncredited
In 2018, a photo of Özil with the Turkish President caused great criticism. Together with his teammate İlkay Gündoğan, the then national player posed with Erdoğan. Fans accused him of not being behind the German National team to stand and instead to represent the values of the controversial ruler.
Will Özil now also join Erdoğan in politics? In any case, the rumors are swirling.
Fans criticized Özil’s support for Erdoğan. Bild: imago sportfotodienst / Chai vd Laage
What do the current polls say?
In the current “PolitPro” Election trend for parliamentary elections Erdoğan’s party AKP reaches 33.4 percent. His alliance party, the ultra-nationalist MHP, has 6.4 percent. The opposition parties CHP and Iyi achieved 27.5 percent and 11.3 percent respectively. Both have gained favor with voters since the last election. AKP and MHP, on the other hand, are losing approval. The pro-Kurdish HDP comes to 10.9 percent.
Supporters of the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP). Image: AP/Francis Seco
These polls are not election forecasts, they merely reflect the current political mood. Nevertheless: Compared to previous elections, the opposition probably has a good chance of defeating Erdoğan this time.
What are the acute problems in the country?
According to experts, the polls for Erdoğan’s party are falling due to high inflation in the country and poor crisis management after the earthquake.
The aftermath of the earthquake continues to hit the country hard. The reconstruction of destroyed buildings and infrastructure is in the billions – Money that Turkey can hardly raise on its own without support. In addition, according to the Turkish government, there are over three million People forced to leave the earthquake area.
As a result of the earthquake disaster in the Turkish-Syrian border area, many people lost their homes.Image: EUROPA PRESS / David Zorrakino
Added to this is the rising cost of living due to inflation. Independent economic researchers even see real inflation at over 120 percent. At the same time, Turkey takes so many Refugees like no other country in the world.
Currently live there according to the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) more than 3.6 million people displaced by the Syrian civil war and almost 320,000 people seeking protection from other countries, mainly from Afghanistan and Iraq. According to the UN, the high number of refugees is increasingly burdening the resources and infrastructure in Turkey.
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The opposition from CHP and Iyi stands according to information from “PolitPro” for a strict immigration policy, while the conservative AKP is moderate. However, Erdoğan’s party is committed to a strong nation state and promotes economic growth climate protection. The CHP in particular is more liberal, cosmopolitan and climate-friendly here.
“Destiny Choice”: What makes this choice so special?
As polls show, these elections could be dangerous for Erdoğan. He himself speaks of a “fate choice”. To this end, the parliamentary and presidential elections will be held for the first time under the new framework conditions of the 2018 constitutional amendments. It could be a turning point and herald not only a change of government but also a change of system.
Turkey under Erdogan is a “prime example of a competitive authoritarian regime”, in which there are elections, “but they are not free and fair,” says Gönül Tol, director of the Turkey program at the Middle East Institute in Washington of the dpa news agency. It is therefore difficult for the opposition to defeat the opponent in elections.
If it succeeds anyway, Tol believes that this is not only an important step for Turkey, but also gives “the world and democracy hope that authoritarian regimes can be overcome”.
On the other hand, if Erdoğan wins another term in office, she believes that elections in Turkey will no longer play a role in the future.
(With material from the dpa)
