There is for a Prime Minister an anguish at least equal to that of not spending the winter: that of not spending the summer. In this case July. The seventh month of the year is the graveyard of government leaders. Emmanuel Macron knows it, who the other evening on television made an appointment for July 14, for a “first assessment”. Elisabeth Borne knows it too, who is not determined to let herself be beaten without a fight: she has already saved her head once, in June 2022, she is ready to start again. But all the ministers agree that a new political equation is needed before tackling the fall, its budgets, its 49.3, its motions of censure.
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As much as the appearance, in the last minutes of the preparation of the speech, of the concept of 100 days disconcerted more than one in the entourage of the Head of State, as much the evocation of July in the mouths of the President owes nothing to chance. “It’s a good month for the reshuffles, it keeps the media busy and it allows us to have a new device for the start of the school year in September”, even whispers a close friend of the Head of State.
The risks exist: waiting means exposing yourself to whistles, as we saw on Wednesday April 19 in Alsace; it also means leaving three months of competition during which the competitors will advance their pawns. Emmanuel Macron has not appreciated the outings of ministers since Monday – “the time of the musketeers”, wrote The echoes with reference to the statements of Bruno Le Maire, Gérald Darmanin or Gabriel Attal.
But it’s not inventing the wire to cut the butter to have this calendar in mind, it’s just remembering a recent past. The only time Emmanuel Macron decided to change Prime Minister (therefore without being forced to do so, as after a presidential election), was in July. In summer it is hot so we inevitably drink. We are in 2020. Edouard Philippe, just re-elected as mayor of Le Havre, arrives with a foggy mind at the Elysée this Monday, June 29. The citizens’ convention is not his cup of tea and, precisely, it is not just tea that he had the night before to celebrate his victory. He will attend with a crestfallen face and a headache from hell at the reception given by the President of the Republic, in the gardens of the palace, to deliver the conclusions he draws from the citizens’ convention on the climate. Edouard Philippe is living his last hours as Prime Minister, and he still does not know it. Since the first days of June, Emmanuel Macron has met Jean Castex in the greatest secrecy. Thursday, July 2, after having shifted several times, Emmanuel Macron talks in his office with the one he propelled to Matignon three years earlier. Accompanying him on the steps, the president hugs him. It’s a way like any other to thank him: the next day, at 9:30 a.m., Jean Castex takes over as head of government.
Emmanuel Macron has always considered July as a month different from the others, a singular month. In 2016, there was a plan A. He is Minister of the Economy, he is trying to leave Bercy to launch his own rocket. This time, it was on July 12 that he made an appointment: a meeting at the Mutualité, a Parisian room that went down in history, to display his ambitions. In his entourage the reflection is in full swing: what if he took advantage of the second half of the month? Leaving in July to be the star of the summer is quite a program. Two days later, the Nice attack and its 90 dead sweep away the scenario, he will wait until the end of the summer and August 30 to slam the door.
Almost a tradition in the Fifth Republic
Emmanuel Macron knows the rhythm of the seasons as he knows the history of the Fifth. When does a president most often choose to change prime minister, except when the tempo is dictated by a ballot? In July. 1968: the June legislative elections, following a dissolution after the famous events of May, caused a Gaullist tidal wave in the Assembly. In The Curse of the Right (Perrin), Guillaume Tabard recounts the episode: on July 6, 1968, Georges Pompidou said to himself that, all in all, he would still stay a little longer at Matignon, whereas he had argued the opposite in the previous days. “It’s too stupid! It’s too late, I just offered the job to Couve,” replied General de Gaulle. Here the exit.
1972: Jacques Chaban Delmas has no choice, on July 5 he writes his letter of resignation to President Pompidou, who “informed him of his intention to change the government”. A few weeks earlier, in mid-May, Chaban obtained what he had publicly, and recklessly, desired, that is to say, authorization to solicit a vote of confidence from the National Assembly. Pompidou grants it to him then waits for this famous month of July to signify the end of his presence at Matignon.
1984: on July 12, François Mitterrand renounces the bill on free schools, which leads to the resignation of the Minister of National Education, Alain Savary, and in the process that of the head of government, Pierre Mauroy. Impossible then to enlarge the majority, we will even reduce it: the four Communist ministers are packing up, Laurent Fabius will do without them. But the appointment, on July 17, of this 37-year-old enarque will end up giving the president a facelift.
Time now flows much faster. “Professional wear and tear will also apply to Prime Ministers who must cohabit with Parliament, which changes the function”, notes a member of the first Macronian circle. A minister wonders: in this new configuration, shouldn’t we imagine heads of government for a limited period, with an action plan over fifteen months?
At least the Prime Ministers fired in July have the holidays stretching out their arms. That’s not all. Those who remain may give the executive fewer cold sweats. With a bit of luck, Playboy does a double number in the summer, which halves the risk of ministerial interviews. A break, a truce, in these moments of political and media madness, like a little taste of happiness at the top of the state.
