Trouble spots in Africa are slipping out of sight: Russia is seizing the moment and secretly expanding its power in West Africa. Image: imago / Ritzau Scanpix
analysis
The world feels like it’s on fire: Russian bombs are killing People in Europe. Women die in Iran because they want to live freely. Children bleed to death in school shootings in the USA. The constant fear that the world will race into a climate catastrophe without pulling the handbrake.
And then there is Africa. A continent that is moving out of the limelight with all the current trouble spots. And this blind spot becomes the power playground of a very specific actor: Russia.
A mother sets fire to a camp for displaced people in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.PICTURED: IMAGO/Xinhua/ Zanem Nety Zaidi
Displaced people in Africa get the least attention
Democratic Republic of Congo, Burkina Faso, Cameroon: These are the most forgotten crisis countries in 2021. Millions of people from there are fleeing and fighting for survival.
That makes one study of the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC). Every year, the independent humanitarian organization publishes the ten most forgotten displacement crises worldwide. In 2021, for the first time, all of the crises listed were on the African continent.
Take Burkina Faso, for example: With the skyrocketing number of displaced people and the political instability that led to a military coup in January 2022, the humanitarian situation there will continue to deteriorate, according to the NRC. At the same time he war in Ukraine shown what is possible when the international community takes on a crisis, writes the NCR in the foreword of the published list.
Chaos in West Africa: Russia senses an opportunity to expand its power
Because while the world community is losing sight of Africa, Russia is rubbing its hands. The Kremlin apparently knows how to use the chaos to its advantage and is continuing to expand its power in West Africa. Ulf Laessing also observes this. He heads the “Regional Program Sahel” in Mali for the CDU-affiliated Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation.
“Russia sees an opportunity to exploit the currently heated mood in Burkina Faso to win over another country with traditionally good relations with Europe,” he said when asked by watson. Moscow is already seeing successes because the military government is open to greater cooperation.
Soldiers loyal to Burkina Faso’s latest coup plotter, Ibrahim Traoré.Image: AP / Kilaye Bationo
Background: Burkina Faso wants to arm 50,000 volunteers to fight jihadists. According to Laessing, such militias are repeatedly associated with the killing of civilians. Western states want to help the country, but won’t weapons for paramilitaries – this is an opportunity for Moscow, says the expert.
He says:
“The Russian ambassador has already offered to supply arms and send Wagner mercenaries. The government is still hesitant about the mercenaries, since foreign troops are domestically sensitive. But Russia will try to link the arms supply with a contract for Wagner – this tactic was already successful in Mali.”
However, the security situation in Burkina Faso is far more tense than in neighboring Mali.
The situation in Burkina Faso is even more dramatic than in Mali
“A large part of the country is outside the control of the central government,” says Laessing. There are daily attacks by jihadists who focus on Burkina Faso because they are expanding from here towards stable coastal states like Togo and Cote D’Ivoire.
“If Burkina Faso falls, the stability of all of West Africa is at risk,” warns the expert. The West African country is currently the biggest trouble spot in the Sahel – and the West’s hands are now tied.
Laessing says:
“Unfortunately, Germany and Europe have little opportunity to help the country. The army and the elite are divided. The new military government – the second in eight months – is stirring up sentiment against France and the West and is seeking to close ranks with Russia.”
Supporters of Burkina Faso’s latest putschist Traoré wave Burkinabe and Russian flags.Image: AP / Kilaye Bationo
The new military rulers around Ibrahim Traoré deliberately spread anti-French sentiment. At the beginning of the year, for example, the French ambassador, Luc Hallade, was expelled. In addition, the military government is throwing the French army out of the country. Must go to Mali France withdraw its anti-terrorist mission from Burkina Faso.
In addition to Burkina Faso, Mali is also on the list of forgotten displacement crises in 2021. The German armed forces are still active there.
The Bundeswehr offers protection to displaced persons in Mali – now they want to withdraw
German soldiers are taking part in the United Nations stabilization mission to secure peace in Mali. But the situation is becoming increasingly difficult – especially since the French withdrew from the country.
Two Bundeswehr soldiers deployed in Mali to keep the peace. Image: dpa / Kay Nietfeld
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“Since the French withdrew from Mali, pro-Russian trolls on social media have increasingly targeted the UN’s blue helmets and thus also the German armed forces,” says Laessing. For example, he points to a video in which pro-Russian influencers describe the Bundeswehr and France as allegedly new colonial powers.
Malians demonstrate in Bamako, Mali, against France and for Russia.Image: AP
Is the pressure too great?
In any case, the federal government wants to withdraw the Bundeswehr from Mali by May 2024. This should start coordinated with a clear plan from summer 2023, announced former Defense Minister Christine Lambrecht (SPD) in November. “We want to leave Mali in a very orderly manner.”
This will not remain without humanitarian consequences.
Laessing says:
“Since the French withdrew, the Islamic State has been on the rise. Up to 200,000 people are fleeing and many are seeking refuge in Gao, where the German armed forces are providing security through their presence.”
Many women live with their children in camps for displaced people in Mali.Image: IMAGO / Le Pictorium / Nicolas Remene
After the withdrawal of the Bundeswehr, this protection in the capital of Mali will no longer exist and people will have to move on. According to Laessing, the Bundeswehr could even withdraw earlier if the elections in the country were to be postponed. These are originally scheduled for February 2024.
Election chaos Mali: Bundeswehr could withdraw earlier
Officially, the election date has not yet been set, but a constitutional referendum planned for March – a prerequisite for the elections – is shaky, says the expert. If the elections are delayed, the Bundeswehr could withdraw earlier. The original idea that the soldiers could secure the elections would have been done with.
The German Bundeswehr could withdraw from Mali earlier than planned.Image: dpa / Kay Nietfeld
According to Laessing, Mali’s military government is sensing that dissatisfaction among the population is growing. “The security situation has deteriorated despite the deployment of Russian military and fighters,” he says. In addition, many people are suffering from an economic crisis. The government is trying to stir up anti-West sentiment with populist actions, but this is having less and less effect.
It’s unclear if the current government will win the elections, so Laessing believes postponing the election date may make sense for those in power. One thing is clear: Russian influence is increasing in Mali – and in neighboring Burkina Faso.
Burkina Faso and Mali draw closer to Russia
In Burkina Faso in particular, there is a heated atmosphere because the population is shocked by the catastrophic security situation. “Had the French been able to act more freely with their special forces, this might have slowed the state’s decline,” says Laessing. But Burkina Faso and Mali are apparently counting on Russia.
Russia is fueling anti-Western sentiment in Burkina Faso and expanding its influence in the country.Image: AP / Sophie Garcia
However, member of the Bundestag Katja Leikert (CDU) is certain: Russia’s interests are not in the interests of Africa. In an earlier conversation with watson, she explains: “Russia has no interest in stability, democratization or functioning institutions in Africa.” According to her, the Kremlin is primarily concerned with short-term profits and geopolitical influence – and in return, conflicts are gladly accepted or even fueled.
