This is a study that suggests that the rate increase from 81% to 91% nominal per year that the Central Bank ordered may “fall short”
By iProfessional
02/05/2023 – 07,15hs
A private report states that for the latest rate hike ordered by the Central Bank for time deposits to be positive, monthly inflation should not exceed 7.2% for retail deposits of less than $30 million.
This is indicated by a report from the Economía & Etica consultancy, by economist Diego Giacomini, who recalls that last week “The Central Bank increased the nominal annual reference rate from 81% to 91%which implies that the effective annual rate of 141% for deposits of more than $30 million, although for the rest the effective annual rate will be 128.5%”.
Fixed terms: what should be the inflation ceiling to win?
The study indicates that “deposits of less than $30 million lose against a monthly inflation of 7.2% and deposits of more than $30 million lose against a monthly inflation of 7.7%”.
The report notes that “the rate hike actually feeds the problems it seeks to correct and, therefore, kills the rate hike as an instrument of monetary policy ideal in the present macroeconomic situation”.
In this regard, he argues that “Fixed terms will have negative real returns, that is, they will lose against inflation; the demand for money will fall, the imbalance of excess supply in the money market will reappear and consequently, the excess demand in the exchange market will appear again and the free dollar will jump again”.
The consultant points out that “it cannot be known with certainty when” there may be a new rise in the dollar, but warns that “it can be known that it will not take long this time and the new jump will occur substantially faster than on all previous occasions “.
