It is better to build a larger buffer with more gas storage than too many new LNG terminals: That is what the interest group of German gas and hydrogen operators, INES (Initiative ENERGY STORAGE) proposes and argues that this also better takes into account the upcoming changes caused by the planned climate neutrality of Germany can be worn. Incidentally, the association does not expect any problems in completely filling up the gas storage tanks again by next winter. To do this, he calculated three different scenarios.
The not unselfish suggestion of storage operators is based on the fact that the LNG tankers at Europe’s existing terminals have so far unloaded their freight conspicuously seasonally – namely primarily in winter. If there were more gas storage facilities, more liquefied natural gas could also be imported in summer. In winter, less LNG import capacity would then suffice. The association refers to the figures recently published by the Federal Ministry of Economics on further LNG expansion in Germany.
Storage better for carbon neutrality
With their proposal, the storage operators are also taking up criticism from environmental and climate protectionists, who fear that the LNG terminals will entail a ban on fossil fuels for decades. Additional gas storage facilities could be set up in such a way that they can also be used to store hydrogen. Hydrogen is part of the federal strategy to achieve climate neutrality by 2045.
According to INES, more memory would be necessary anyway. Currently, only existing deposits with a capacity of 32 terawatt hours are suitable for hydrogen. However, a capacity of 74 terawatt hours would be required by the year 2045.
However, it is questionable to what extent the federal government can exert a controlling influence on the construction of further LNG terminals. State influence is currently reduced to the chartering of several floating terminal ships, which were necessary to quickly create alternatives to pipeline imports from Russia after the outbreak of the Russian war of aggression in Ukraine. However, the terminals are operated by private energy companies. Various projects, including a major project off Rügen, against which there have already been numerous protests, are not directly dependent on the federal government.
What is expected for next winter
On the other hand, what could slow down the expansion of further LNG terminals would be a relaxation in the gas supply and falling energy prices. At least the gas storage operators outline the relaxation in the supply for the coming winter. In three models, cold, normal and warm annual courses such as those in 2016, 2010 and 2020 were used as a basis. In all three models, the calculations come to the conclusion that the gas storage facilities – also thanks to the existing LNG terminals – will be full by the end of September, although the federal government only provides a target of 85 percent. In the event of a cold winter, the storage levels could drop again quickly, but also above the 95 percent mark required for November. According to INES, a moderate volume of LNG imports is sufficient for this.
The consulting firm Prognos is currently coming to similarly positive results. The Federal Network Agency and the EU Commission, on the other hand, recently warned against underestimating the challenges for the coming winter in view of the problem-free winter of 2022/23.
(mki)
