The twelve apartment owners of an old building in Düsseldorf city center cannot help but be amazed: They met for the annual owners’ meeting, the property manager leads through the agenda items. He is one of the real estate giants in the North Rhine-Westphalian state capital. More than 1000 Apartments are under his administration.
As a matter of routine, he ticks off the log, which also includes the item “Heating replacement”. The community of owners is unsure about this. The old gas boiler still works, but maintenance costs skyrocket. The property manager advises “replacing” – preferably “as soon as possible” and “with a new gas heating system” before it is banned.
It is significantly cheaper to use, and there is no problem installing it because it is the same system and can currently be obtained quickly because everyone is asking about these “hyped heat pumps”. He has companies on hand that do this quickly and reliably. The owners are worried. You read and hear something different every day.
De facto ban on oil and gas heating: “They can’t be serious!”
Many property owners in the country are currently feeling the same way as in Düsseldorf. They don’t know what to expect. Except that the federal government is discussing an amendment to the Building Energy Act and several ordinances for converting the heat supply to renewable energies. The draft states that the Federal Ministry for Economic and Climate Protection and the Federal Ministry of Building will ban the installation of new conventional oil and gas heating systems from January 2024. Every new heating system must be operated with at least 65 percent renewable energy.
Daniel Föst is the housing policy spokesman for the FDP parliamentary group and, according to his own statement, reacted to the plans with a cry for help across the office: “They can’t be serious!” They are his government partners. Imagine what the people of the country thought. While politicians in Berlin are still debating, property owners keep asking themselves the same questions: Can I even afford a modern heat pump? Do we stand alone or do we get support from the government? If yes, where is there a subsidy?
Need a new gas heater now?
What people know is: heat pumps are expensive. The installation, including the often unavoidable renovation work, quickly amounts to several 10,000 euros. Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck reassured: “It is absolutely clear that the higher costs of heat pumps for those who could not otherwise afford them must be absorbed or mitigated.”
It remains to be seen who can afford it. Nobody knows the criteria yet. It is also unclear where the funding will come from. There are already umpteen real estate owners who would like to make energy-saving renovations, but are unable to find the financing.
With all this uncertainty, many a property owner has a completely different idea: Wouldn’t it be wise to buy a new gas heating system by the deadline at the end of this year? Anyone who asks their manufacturer gets the impression that it is the same.
“If you forbid the Germans something, they’ll definitely buy it again”
“We have been noticing the high demand for months. Gas and oil sales are skyrocketing. If you ban the Germans from something, they will definitely buy again,” says Frank Ebisch, spokesman for the Central Association for Sanitary, Heating and Air Conditioning. And adds: “What we didn’t expect is that there are people who are canceling their orders for the heat pumps because they want to wait and see whether the subsidy is even higher.”
The North Rhine-Westphalia Association of Heating Engineers found something similar in its recent survey: “Thanks to repeated, unrealistic statements made by non-specialist politicians, there are more and more calls from unsettled customers. Older people in particular would like to replace their gas or oil heating systems as quickly as possible,” was the conclusion.
Modern systems have a service life of 15 to 20 years – providers advertise even longer service lives if all maintenance is carefully observed. Since old heating systems only have to be replaced by 2045 according to the draft law, the change could still be worthwhile in theory.
However, experts such as Michael Bilharz from the Federal Environment Agency advise you to think twice before installing a gas heating system: “Not least because of the CO2 tax, the price of gas will tend to go up rather than down over the next 15 years. And the shortage of craftsmen will also limit the premature replacement of functioning gas heating systems.”
What speaks for and against a change in heating
How high gas prices will be in the next 20 years is a dangerous bet. In addition, CO2 taxes threaten. On the other hand, electricity should become cheaper in the long term. And it’s true: from today’s perspective, gas technology is nearing the end of the road, which could eventually affect service.
There are still various alternatives to deciding on gas heating or a heat pump. Hybrid systems are possible – i.e. the combination of gas or oil heating with a heat pump or with a biomass boiler. District heating systems, direct electricity, pellet or fuel cell heating systems are also options. According to the current status, the decisive factor is that 65 percent of the heat comes from renewable energies. In any case, the structure of the building and the individual situation are decisive when replacing the heating system.
It’s about people’s homes
The following points should also be considered: First, Habeck’s draft is not yet law – the majority in the traffic light is not yet there. Numerous exceptions and transitional solutions have also been announced. So if the gas boiler fails you in March 2024, you don’t have to buy a heat pump immediately.
There is also the option of installing gas heaters after 2024 – but they must then be operated with “green gas” such as hydrogen. As of today, this is difficult to obtain, which is why experts advise against it.
The situation is reminiscent of 2011 when 60-watt light bulbs were banned. Back then, the Germans bought sacks of leftovers and built up reserves for what felt like a decade. It wasn’t rational. But people don’t always act rationally. Especially not when it comes to your home.
The original of this post “”If you forbid the Germans something, they’ll buy it even more”” comes from WirtschaftsKurier.
