Will the Transisthmic Corridor be successful? The idea seems to make sense: create a logistics path that links the Pacific Ocean with the Gulf of Mexico. Go from Salina Cruz to Coatzacoalcos through railways and highways. Promote 10 regional development poles in Oaxaca and Veracruz, an area that needs investment and a plan to close the gap that separates them from northern Mexico. Offer fiscal stimuli to detonate a geographical area that, although depressed, has natural and logistical advantages to become a highly productive region.
The project was presented at the beginning of the six-year term, as part of a poker of emblematic works of President López Obrador. The corridor is a “brother” of the Dos Bocas Refinery; from the Mayan Train and the Felipe Ángeles Airport. He is a brother, but he is the “smartest” in the family. He is not born from a multimillion-dollar cancellation, like AIFA. It does not imply enormous environmental destruction, like the Mayan Train. It is not a tribute to the 20th century, a way of asking time to return, as is the refinery. It’s something that makes sense in the third decade of the 21st century and for years to come.
The calendar plays against the Transisthmic Corridor. We are 16 months away from the end of the six-year term and there are still many things to do. To begin with, complete the railways and the improvement/expansion of the roads. More importantly, give shape and meaning to what will be the poles of development. Build and refine the legal framework. Finding a narrative or story capable of attracting the investors that are needed, with a long-term vision and the ability to function as “locomotives” for other companies. Make the public investments that are required in two states that have profound deficiencies in terms of social infrastructure: Veracruz and Oaxaca are at the bottom of the table in terms of housing, educational and health services.
Do you remember the Special Economic Zones? During the past six-year term, the Mexican government launched an ambitious project to develop the South-Southeast. There were seven special economic zones, located in Lázaro Cárdenas-La Unión (Michoacán and Guerrero); Puerto Chiapas (Chiapas); Progress (Yucatan); Seybaplaya (Campeche); Dos Bocas (Tabasco) and… Salina Cruz and Coatzacoalcos.
The Special Economic Zones were born in 2016 in the office of Luis Videgaray. They had public resources for infrastructure and in the form of subsidies for “pioneer” investors. They started from an interesting premise: the poles of development would not be the poorest municipalities, but those that had the most potential, among the poorest. They were so serious that modifications were made to the legal, federal and state frameworks to “guarantee” their permanence beyond the past six years.
How much money was lost with the cancellation of the special zones? There are no figures with equivalent precision to those that refer to what happened to the Texcoco airport. It must be taken into account that in the SEZs there was no physical investment in an amount remotely similar to that of the airport. Just for reference, in the cash cut at the end of the last six-year term, it was said that there were letters of intent to invest 8.234 million dollars. The investment potential amounted to 42 billion dollars.
AMLO was not convinced by the numbers or the narrative. In April 2019, AMLO announced the end of the Special Economic Zones. They did not fulfill the purposes for which they were created, said the president when announcing the liquidation. He also criticized the business that was done in them. He talked about speculation in the sale of land and other things that he left us to the imagination, but he did not file complaints. He said the South/Southeast development goals could be best met with the Maya Train, Refinery and Corridor.
How will the next president treat this logistics corridor? Mexican history is full of abandonments of the favorite projects of former presidents. When we talk about the need for investors with a long-term vision, we are not just talking about private companies. The project requires sustained public investment over several six-year terms. For obvious reasons, the most important commitment is from the next president or the next president. A wave of large expenditures will be necessary from 2025 onwards. It is promotion, maintenance and renovation of the infrastructure. It is commitment to the development and attraction of talent. Sustained investments in education, health, culture, public safety.
