Now that the dust has settled in Downing Street and the halls of the Palace of Westminster, and markets are now more concerned about the sinking of cryptocurrencies that through the course of the pound sterling, the British political class takes stock and prepares for future deadlines. Two years before the next general election, politicians of all persuasions, political scientists and pollsters agree on one thing: Keir Starmer’s Labor should win the day, hands down. And while Labor is slowly but surely preparing to take power after twelve years of purgatory, the Tories are abandoning ship.
A veritable exodus: in ten days, 14 Conservative MPs have publicly announced that they will not stand for re-election and even quit politics for good. And if they announce it now, it is because the choice of future candidates for each constituency has just begun. According to Steven Swinford, columnist at Times and attentive observer of Westminster, the starting Conservatives could reach the number of 70. Unheard of between two legislatures. Among them, we find young deputies, but also heavyweights like Sajid David, a leading figure in the Tory party, former Minister of the Economy, Health and the Interior, who arrived in the House of Commons in 2010, to the age of 40 years. After a career in banking, this Briton of Pakistani origin was one of the new faces of diversity ardently promoted by David Cameron.
Conservative MP Charles Walker sums up the current situation well: “Many of my colleagues ask themselves the question: continue, what for? Get beaten after six weeks of a grueling campaign? And even if they are elected, want to they really spend the next five or ten years in opposition?” For young MPs like Dehenna Davison, 29, elected in 2019, and Chloe Smith, 40, elected in 2009, it’s all seen: they have chosen to leave the arena. Twelve years of conservatism, Brexit and five Prime Ministers have exhausted them.
In the polls and in people’s minds, the game seems to be done. The last by-elections, like that of Chester in the county of Cheshire (north-west of England) at the beginning of December, all point in the same direction: a tidal wave for Labour. In Chester, the Tories had their worst score since… 1832. For John Curtice, renowned political scientist from the University of Strathclyde, Chester confirms the underlying trend: “On the national average, Labor is 20 points ahead of the party Tory.” Small consolation, this average was 30 points during the Truss era, the previous head of government…
And even if Rishi Sunak has brought some order and seriousness to the head of the country after the catastrophic twelve weeks of Liz Truss, no one considers the young Prime Minister capable of restoring the Tory coat of arms, decidedly too tarnished. Sunak will also find it difficult to contain internal divisions in the coming months. On many issues, the Conservatives are divided: immigration, the development of wind farms, the relaxation of construction rules in rural areas, the reopening of coal mines and even how to negotiate with the unions, while the country is experiencing strikes in all sectors of the economy for the first time since the 1970s.
The Conservative rout therefore leaves the field open to Keir Starmer and Labor to prepare public opinion for their return to power. First of all by deepening their program of government and, then, by choosing their candidates for deputy. On this subject, on December 6, Starmer sent a strong message to the far left wing of his party by announcing that his predecessor Jeremy Corbyn would not be invested in his electoral stronghold of Islington North (north of London), that he represents since 1983.
The realignment of Labor to the center-left, after the disastrous episode of Corbynism between 2015 and 2020, is therefore recorded and anchored to last. Moreover, Keir Starmer, no doubt afraid of frightening the moderate right-wing electorate whom he intends to wrest from the Conservative Party, has recently multiplied his statements critical of the strikers, but also of an immigration which would not be sufficiently controlled. On Brexit, he continues to kick in touch and speaks only of “renegotiations in its terms so that Brexit finally benefits the British”. But not a word about its severe impact on the economy, now admitted by many economists in the country. At least not before coming to power.
On the other hand, the Labor leader hopes to obtain the full and enthusiastic support of the British on two important subjects: the abolition of the House of Lords and greater autonomy for the nations that make up the United Kingdom. A 155-page report written by Gordon Brown and unveiled on December 5 recommends the constitution of a second chamber of some 200 members which would be elected, and not appointed on a discretionary basis by the Prime Ministers. In other words, Starmer proposes to finish a reform started by Tony Blair. Today, the plethoric House of Lords is made up of 820 members, only a minority of whom deign to participate regularly in legislative work. There are still a few hereditary peers, but above all donors and proteges of each former Prime Minister, such as Evgeny Lebedev, son of a former KGB leader and friend of Putin, whom Boris Johnson appointed in 2020, against the advice intelligence services. According to a survey by the Survation Institute, 71% of Britons would be in favor of the abolition or “total overhaul” of this House of Lords. A good point for Starmer.
As for the greater autonomy of nations, this would consist in granting them new powers in fiscal and budgetary matters, but also in international law with the possibility of joining international programs such as Erasmus. 50,000 civil servants would thus leave London to work in the regions. This generous way of pulling the rug out from under the feet of the independentist Scots led by Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon, while granting them more latitude and resources, would allow Labor to present themselves as unifiers. Moreover, the moderate conservatives applaud. The study center and information site Reaction said it was impressed: “Here are two reforms that are both democratic and economic; it’s very cunning and clever of Keir Starmer.” He has two years left to confirm this return to grace.
