“We will not present a presidential candidate”: Here is the announcement, Wednesday March 22 in the morning, of the president of the HDP, the main pro-Kurdish party in Turkey. Pervin Buldan, that’s his name, adds: “Turkey and democracy need reconciliation, not conflict“. Certainly, this is not an explicit call to support Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the candidate of the “Table of Six”, that is to say the alliance of the six opposition parties to Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. But for the Kurds, it’s about the same. The implication is clear: we must block the outgoing president. And this decision can tip the ballot. The HDP indeed represents about 10% of the votes in Turkey, it is the third political force in the country. The choice to give up a candidacy should push many of the 15 million Kurds to turn to the Kiliçdaroglu vote.
Why does the Kurdish party not explicitly call for a vote for the opposition? Because he wants to keep his autonomy, because some members of the opposition alliance are wary of the Kurds; and above all because it could be counterproductive: Recep Tayyip Erdogan would use it to denounce the Kurdish hold on the opposition.
Polls clearly favorable to the opposition candidate
Seven weeks before the election, the opposition therefore has the wind in its sails: even before this decision, the opposition candidate already possessed, according to all the polls of recent days, a margin of advance of 10 points on President Erdogan. 55/45 on average. If Kemal Kiliçdaroglu does not make a political error by then, and if the alliance of the Six manages to maintain its unity, the opposition can therefore hope to win on May 14, in the presidential and legislative elections. And end 20 years of increasingly centralized power. Worries are definitely piling up for Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The economic situation remains poor, with inflation exceeding 60%.
For the middle classes, this is a major issue. And this situation is largely due to the president’s controversial choices in monetary matters. Recep Tayyip Erdogan also remains confronted with consequences of the huge earthquake of February 6, which left 50,000 dead in the country. Many Turks still reproach him for the slowness of the rescue, and impute to him the responsibility for the state of the buildings which in certain places have collapsed like houses of cards. Corruption in the construction industry is closely linked to the mode of governance of the AKP, Erdogan’s party.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan will play his all
But there are seven weeks left and we can count on Recep Tayyip Erdogan to campaign with a vengeance. To play with his charisma. To use the main media, mostly under control, as propaganda tools. And to denounce, despite everything, the influence of the Kurds on the opposition. For Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the HDP party is linked to the PKK, this armed group considered terrorist. Moreover, the historical leader of the HDP, Selahattin Demirtas, has been behind bars for more than six years. However, since this position of the pro-Kurdish party Erdogan seems despite everything in a delicate position.
