People around the world have joined the protests and taken to the streets for Iran’s freedom – but what about seven months later?Bild: IMAGO/NurPhoto / Allison Bailey
Analyse
The protests began seven months ago in Iran. Since then, the call “Woman, life, freedom” has gone around the world – but has it fallen silent in the meantime? This is how it is with the fight against the mullah regime and the hopes of Iranians Women and Men for a change in the country.
In an interview with watson, experts explain that the protests have subsided, but so has media interest. This is where the government comes in for criticism. “Too poor and not credible,” is how CDU foreign policymaker Roderich Kiesewetter assesses Germany’s current support for the Iranian demonstrators.
In Germany, too, people demonstrated against the mullah regime, such as at the Brandenburg Gate.Image: imago / Olaf Schuelke
From the Foreign Office it says: The situation of the People in Iran remains a priority. But from the beginning, what is the current situation in the country?
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Inflation in Iran could fuel protests
“The street protests are still taking place sporadically and regionally,” explains the German-Iranian political scientist Ali Fathollah-Nejad. The economic crisis is getting worse due to high inflation rates. Sooner or later this could lead to larger demonstrations – which the regime also fears.
According to Iran analyst Adnan Tabatabai from the Orient Research Center CARPO, Iran is in an economically desolate state. In addition, after the last wave of protests, the gap between the state and Gesellschaft got bigger. Although one cannot yet speak of unstable conditions, Tabatabai also expects a new cycle of protests that could lead to unrest.
The experts agree: there is no end in sight to the protests. This is also confirmed by Tareq Sydiq, a researcher at the Center for Conflict Research in Marburg. “Previous waves of protests have shown that such a supposed calm rarely lasts long,” he says. This is also why the state is expanding its repression, for example with increased surveillance of women without a hijab.
A development that clearly worries CDU politician Kiesewetter.
According to CDU foreign policy expert Roderich Kiesewetter, the federal government must put more pressure on Iran. Bild: imago / Christian Spicker
CDU politician Kiesewetter criticizes Germany’s support
“In essence, Germany has not distanced itself from the Iranian mullahs’ regime,” says Kiesewetter. The federal government uses his Opinion after continuing diplomatic negotiations with a regime that uses increasingly harsh, repressive measures, violence, imprisonment of up to 18,000 people, torture and murder against its own people.
Recently, there have been repeated poisoning attacks in girls’ schools in Iran. The journalist Natalie Amiri shares a video about it Twitter.
The mullah regime also took advantage of the attempts at appeasement Deutschland for own purposes, says Kiesewetter. According to him, Iran will continue to maintain nuclear capability and the construction of a nuclear bomb. Apart from the verbal condemnation and the expulsion of two embassy employees, Germany has not had a “credible reaction” to the mullahs’ regime.
A demonstrator points to the brutal violence of the mullah regime. Bild: IMAGO/NurPhoto / Creative Touch Imaging Lt
“Germany’s Iran policy is therefore not credible,” criticizes Kiesewetter. The pressure on the unjust regime must be massively increased. To this end, he lists the following measures:
- Put the Revolutionary Guards on the EU terror list,
- close the Islamic Center Hamburg (Blue Mosque) as the hub of operations of the Islamic regime of Iran in Germany; and
- above all, massively increase the sanctions imposed by Germany and the EU on members and beneficiaries of the regime.
“The EU has so far sanctioned fewer than 200 people. Compared to Canada, which has sanctioned around 10,000 people, there is still a lot of room here,” says Kiesewetter. When watson asked how the Federal Foreign Office is currently supporting Iranian demonstrators, it says: The situation of the people in Iran remains a priority.
Federal Foreign Office assures: protest in Iran remains a priority
The Federal Foreign Office keeps the topic on the agenda – also in dialogue with European and international partners. It goes on to say:
“Together with our EU partners, we have passed a package of sanctions under the EU human rights regime every month since the protests began in Iran to hold those responsible for serious human rights violations accountable. On the occasion of International Women’s Day on March 8, the EU also launched the Qarchak -Women’s prison listed.”
The Federal Foreign Office has also issued humanitarian visas and made places available for particularly threatened Iranians in protection programs. “On our initiative, the UN Human Rights Council set up an international commission of inquiry,” it said.
But Kiesewetter is probably not enough – he holds Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) in particular responsible.
According to Kiesewetter, Foreign Minister Baerbock is “too unambitious”
With her strategy of “diplomacy and toughness” she is making the right points, but she remains far too “unambitious” when it comes to Iran, says the CDU politician.
He elaborates:
“Especially here it would be important to continue to show courage and to support the courageous Iranian civil society, especially the women who are risking their lives protesting in Iran, with concrete measures in their fight for freedom and civil rights.”
According to the Iran expert Fathollah-Nejad, the current support of Germany and the EU is “only rhetorical”.
The EU is too intimidated by the mullah regime
“Substantially, we see the continuation of a European Iran policy that still strongly adheres to the nuclear deal and is thereby intimidated by Tehran’s nuclear escalation,” says Fathollah-Nejad.
Instead, according to him, a paradigm shift would be necessary towards a unified transatlantic line that would make the Iran strategy more comprehensive than the nuclear issue and give greater consideration to the human rights issue. Iran analyst Tabatabai, on the other hand, thinks that the course of the protests in Iran will not depend on support from Germany or the EU.
Iran protests are making less and less headlines
“These are inner-Iranian dynamics that will run in the most healthy way socio-politically without outside interference,” he says. He is not surprised that media attention also decreases when spectacular pictures are no longer produced. He says:
“The quietly ongoing protests don’t make the headlines that easily and are clearly overshadowed by events such as the war in Ukraine. But those interested in Iran are still keeping an eye on the country.”
According to the conflict researcher Sydiq, the demonstrators used clever communication via social media at an early stage to generate international attention. However, according to him, this also has its limits. “That became clear in March when an Iranian was deported from Germany – despite the acute threat,” says Sydiq. The “Frankfurter Rundschau‘ reported the incident.
Anyone who is deported to Iran may be in danger.Image: IMAGO/ZUMA Wire / Thomas Krych
No signs of an imminent political coup in Iran
The experts agree: The protest in Iran is not over – but there is still a long way to go to the hoped-for change of the demonstrators.
According to Tabatabai, there are no signs of a political overthrow. On the one hand, the potential for mobilization is still too low, and on the other hand, the state elites do not yet show any cracks or discord. But he emphasizes: “One shouldn’t forget that there was solidarity for the protests among large parts of the population.” The question will now be whether the state or the protest movement will succeed in winning over the silent majority.
