The economist Javier Milei released a video in which he criticizes Vice President Cristina Kirchner for the collection of the millionaire retirement. “To what extent is it tolerable that a woman sentenced to six years in prison for stealing GDP from the Argentine State collects $9 million from a privileged retirement and you, who worked all your life, contributed more than 30 years and never stole anything from her? to anyone, less than $80,000? A different Argentina is impossible with the same as always. Full stop,” says the voice of the liberal deputy’s spot with the label La Libertad Avanza.
NEW PARAGRAPH. ???????? Cristina Fernandez breaks the lives and souls of all the retirees who risked everything. miley @JMilei He comes to give back to each Argentine retiree what the President of the Republic has taken from them. Dream big again!pic.twitter.com/v2APihwnvf— Leandro of 17% ???????? (@leandromv1999) April 1, 2023
Elections: how many seats can Milei add in Congress?
On the way to the presidential election the libertarian Javier Miley is consolidated as a third competitive option according to numerous surveys and this allows it to project a significant growth of its block in the Chamber of Deputies, where could exceed 20 benches and become a new key player in the struggle between the Frente de Todos and Juntos por el Cambio
In addition to electing President, Argentines will vote in this year’s national elections 130 national deputies in the 24 jurisdictions of the country. The Frente de Todos puts 68 of the 118 seats it currently has at stake and Juntos por el Cambio 55 of 116.
Unlike them, The La Libertad Avanza bloc made up of Milei and Victoria Villarruel will maintain those two seats because both entered the Lower House in 2021 and have a mandate until 2025, so the libertarian space can only grow even if it obtains a meager result. The key question is how much.
The different voting intention surveys that circulate they give Milei, on average, between 15 and 20 points, which places it third in most cases and sometimes with very short differences compared to the rest. With such a result and a dispute between Together for Change and the Frente de Todos, the libertarian space could have a bloc that influence the quorum and majorities to make laws.
The projection on the possible distribution of seats in Deputies based on the surveys has as a weak point the high number of undecided that still appear in the polls, four months before the primary elections (PASO). Almost always, that segment is around 15%.
If the undecided are eliminated and only the voting intention of each political space or candidate is taken, based on the calculation by which the seats are distributed (D’Hont System) Milei could add between 8 (with the worst results) and approximately 20 benches to the two that it already has, in case of achieving a result in line with the most optimistic polls and at a national level.
Almost all polls give Milei an average of between 15 and 20 points of voting intention
The latest survey by the consulting firm Synopsis gives the liberals/libertarians referenced mainly in Milei a voting intention of 14.6%against a 27.4% of Together for Change and a 23.4% of the Front of Allfollowed by “non-Kirchnerist Peronism” with 9.2%, the Left Front with 5.3%, “others” with 5.1% and undecided 14.9%.
If those numbers were given, La Libertad Avanza it could win between 18 and 22 seats, while the main opposition alliance and the ruling party would be left with between 30 and more than 40 each. The calculation will never be exact because it depends on how the undecided are distributed between the different electoral fronts and the blank vote, but it works as an approximation.
The “strong zone” of the libertarian to grow in Deputies
Milei’s main difficulty is ability to audit throughout the country. These days, his campaign command works to try to solve this weakness in the different provinces. The different surveys coincide in pointing out that the area of the country where the eccentric economist best measured is the Metropolitan Area of Buenos Aires (AMBA).
If only the province of Buenos Aires is taken, which elects 35 national deputies in this electoral period, with barely 10% of the votes, Milei could be left with about 4 seats. A recent poll by the consulting firm CB Consultora carried out between March 6 and 10 gave him a 15% voting intention there.
In the same way, if the deputy from La Libertad Avanza obtains good figures and establishes himself as a third option, he could add deputies in large provinces such as Santa Fe or Córdoba. The Senate will be more difficult for him, where his space could only enter if he comes first or second in one of the 8 provinces that elect representatives for the Upper House.
Certainly the calculations are volatile in the face of the many unknowns that remain to be revealed for the campaign, among them the final conformation of the most competitive lists, and also with the high percentage of undecided and the STEP involved, but they allow us to have an example of What does the “Milei phenomenon” mean, beyond the presidential race?.
In the race for the Casa Rosada, the libertarian could put together a block that would be key to a parity scenario
What would be the political impact of the “Milei phenomenon” beyond the presidential elections?
If Milei were to come third in the general elections and without the possibility of going to the ballot, he would still grow in the Chamber of Deputies to a point where could upset the balance of forces among the most important political spaces and become an actor that condition the parliamentary agenda of the next government.
With a block that barely reaches 20 deputies, the libertarians would already have a larger space than that of the benches that today are decisive for the Frente de Todos or Juntos por el Cambio to have a majority to approve laws. This is the case of the Federal Interblock, which has 8 seats, or the United Provinces, which has 4, among others.
The most optimistic numbers that handle in Together for Changeas learned by iProfessional from parliamentary sources, forecast a growth in their space, which would go from 116 to more than 120 seats and some even believe that they can reach 125, two short of a quorum. Meanwhile, the most modest estimates indicate that it could remain more or less the same.
Something similar happens with the Front of All, which after the good results it obtained in the 2019 elections is now facing an adverse scenario. There are few polls that predict a victory for him and, in that sense, he could continue in a situation of parity with Together for Change or lose place. In the worst case scenario, it would fall from 118 to less than 100.
Beyond the number of seats, if the current situation were maintained in which neither of the two most important political spaces has its own majority, the space for Milei could have the quorum keyespecially if Juntos por el Cambio and the Frente de Todos maintain the confrontation that currently makes it difficult for parliamentary agreements to meet and legislate.
How does Milei measure in the latest polls?
In almost all the polls, Juntos por el Cambio appears as the space with the highest intention of votes in a more or less even race with the Frente de Todos, while Milei consolidates third but with an intention to vote that, in some cases, gives him very close to the ruling party and with a chance of overcoming it and getting into the ballot.
Currently, Milei’s space has 2 deputies and everything that adds up in this electoral turn will be a profit
The latest national survey carried out by the Management & Fit consultancy corresponding to March gave Juntos por el Cambio a vote intention of 25.7%, followed by the Frente de Todos with 23.6% and La Libertad advances very close, with 20.4%. The percentage of undecided was 16%, the blank vote 1.7% and those who said they would not vote reached 3.4%.
In the “national monitor” that the consultancy Taquion prepares every month, they gave the “liberals” of Milei a voting intention floor of 13.3%. Above him, Together for Change appeared tied with the Frente de Todos with 20.9% and 20.2%, respectively.
But when calculating the electoral ceiling (which adds to those who said that “surely” they will vote for that political space with those who responded “I could vote for it”) the sector of Milei reached 38.5% and was second behind Juntos por el Cambio with 50.5%, while Frente de Todos reached 35.3%.
While, In the strategic province of Buenos Aires, where 37% of the national census is concentrated, the latest survey by CB Consultora gave Milei a 15.8% vote intention, placing him third behind the 33.9% of the Frente de Everyone and 33.7% of Together for Change, with all their candidates added. In the individual intention, on the other hand, the libertarian passed Horacio Rodríguez Larreta (12.4%) and Cristina Kirchner approached 19.4%.
The same consultant measured in the province of Cordobawhere Milei had 16.3% with which it surpassed the 15.4% that the possible candidates of the Frente de Todos added and was close to the 19.1% that Governor Schiaretti reaches, while Together for Change added 35.1% with all its figures but individually they all appeared behind the libertarian and the governor.
