One thing can be said with a high degree of probability when it comes to the successor to Christine Lambrecht (SPD) as Minister of Defense: Olaf Scholz will not be driven by public advice. One day after their intention to resign became known, demands and warnings were buzzing through the room on Saturday. However, the SPD chancellor is known for making personnel decisions based on his own criteria in a small circle and in coordination with the SPD leadership.
Who will it be this time who only receives their offer by telephone a few hours before the public announcement? It’s not like there are queues of applicants for this difficult job. “Nobody wants to go there, everyone knows that it’s their ejection seat,” says the coalition. The restructuring of the Bundeswehr after decades of underfunding is a politically dangerous business. Even without the challenge of a land war in Europe, Lambrecht’s predecessors were often close to failure.
The focus is now on four politicians from the SPD who have the prerequisites to take on the top job.
The former Berlin SPD member of the Bundestag and military commissioner Eva Högl (54) was not originally a defense politician. In her almost three years as the Bundestag Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, she has settled in and also maintains an emotional relationship with the troops. She knows every problem in detail, be it the lack of winter clothing for the German soldiers in the NATO battle group in Lithuania or the complicated specifications of the ministry for armaments projects. It is unknown what Scholz trusts her to do.
Party leader Lars Klingbeil (44) is undoubtedly a political heavyweight, so he has the prerequisites that former Defense Minister Volker Rühe (CDU) considers crucial. Klingbeil is the son of a professional soldier, and the largest military base in Germany is in his constituency of Munster. The pragmatist is working on programmatically renewing the foreign and security policy of the SPD. In keynote speeches, he advocated Germany as a leading power and a better relationship between the SPD and the Bundeswehr. The troops would probably like this approach. Disadvantage: A party leader should be independent of the chancellor, but as a minister he would be subject to cabinet discipline.
Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil (50) is also considered to be very experienced and influential as ex-Secretary General, ex-vice leader and long-time member of the cabinet. Since 2018, first in the grand coalition and now in the traffic light, he has promoted core and heart issues of his party. He is highly respected and popular in the SPD. Also because of his experience in managing complicated processes, the chancellor could trust him to handle the reform of the Bundeswehr. Heil does not aspire to the office of his own accord. However, he has repeatedly proven that he puts himself at the service of a greater cause when he is called upon. In addition, if Heil were successful as defense minister, he could qualify to succeed Scholz.
Chancellor Wolfgang Schmidt (52) has not only been involved in foreign and security policy since the war. Even as a young man he was interested in foreign policy and later completed an apprenticeship at the Federal Academy for Security Policy (BAKS). The longtime Scholz intimate and helper is familiar with the weapon systems and gives strategic speeches on foreign and security policy. Disadvantage: The lawyer is regarded as irreplaceable as a coordinator in the Chancellery.
The SPD is certain that Scholz will remain true to his goal of a cabinet with equal representation. Possible solution: Heil goes to the Ministry of Defense, a woman becomes his successor. Finding a new labor minister is easier, say those familiar with the coalition.
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