Washington.- For more than a year, Ukrainian air defenses, bolstered by Western weaponry, have kept Russian planes at bay.
But without a major influx of munitions, Ukraine’s entire air defense network, weakened by repeated bombardments by Russian drones and missiles, could fracture, according to recently leaked US officials and Pentagon documents, potentially allowing President Vladimir V. Russia’s Putin unleash its fighter jets in ways that could change the course of the war.
In the first days of the invasion, Russian planes flew hundreds of combat flights to bomb targets in the Ukraine. But a combination of quick thinking on the part of Ukrainian commanders and low intelligence and poor aiming on the part of Russian pilots left many of Ukraine’s fighter jets and air defenses intact, preventing Moscow from gaining control of the skies. over the battlefield and forced Russia to keep much of its air force out.
Now Pentagon officials worry that Moscow’s barrage of attacks is depleting Ukraine’s stock of the missiles it uses to defend itself. And a late-February Pentagon assessment contained in the leaked documents, which were discovered circulating online last week, paints an even bleaker picture.
Missile stocks for the Soviet-era S-300 and Buk air defense systems, which make up 89 percent of Ukraine’s protection against most fighter jets and some bombers, were projected to be completely depleted. for May 3 and mid-April, according to one of the leaked documents. The document, which was issued on February 28, based the assessment on consumption rates at the time. It is not clear if those rates have changed.
The same document assessed that Ukrainian air defenses designed to protect troops on the front line, where much of Russia’s air power is concentrated, will be “fully reduced” by May 23, sparking tensions in the air defense network further into Ukrainian territory.
If that happens, officials say, Moscow could decide it is finally safe for its prized fighter jets and bombers to enter the fray and directly threaten the outcome of the war on the ground.
Senior Pentagon officials say such a move would be a major challenge for Ukraine, particularly if Russian warplanes and bombers are given more freedom to attack Ukrainian troop positions and essential artillery targets on the ground.
