The bill on raising the retirement age returns to the National Assembly on Wednesday before most likely being examined in the Chamber on Thursday. Enough to run at full speed the use of an often misunderstood parliamentary lexicon.
The mixed parity committee adopted article 7 on raising the retirement age to 64 years. What anger the left and the RN who intend to file a motion of censure after a very likely 49.3. If that fails, a shared initiative referendum could cause the government to back down. You didn’t understand everything? We will explain everything to you.
• The joint committee
The mixed parity commission (CMP) is the name that designates the meeting between 7 deputies and 7 senators who seek to reach a common version of a bill. It is customary for the National Assembly and the Senate to each vote on a version, with modifications by each chamber. This time, only the senatorial version was studied, in the absence of a vote at the Palais-Bourbon.
With a casting very favorable to the government – 10 parliamentarians out of 14 are for the reform – the executive has little doubt that the parliamentarians will reach an agreement.
The LRs, whose support is essential for the government, will use all their weight to ensure that the text that comes out of this meeting suits them as much as possible. With some success: the CMP voted in favor of experimenting with the senior CDI while the government was initially against it. Article 7 on retirement at 64, at the heart of the reform, was also adopted on Wednesday afternoon.
• The 49.3
This article from the Constitution allows the government to adopt a bill or a private member’s bill without having to vote on it. Its use entails the immediate suspension of debates in the National Assembly.
If the government wants at all costs to avoid a 49.3 with potentially devastating effect, it is very far from certain to obtain the 287 votes necessary to pass its reform – and not 289, since two seats of deputy are vacant. According to the BFMTV count, only 222 deputies say they are ready to vote in favor of the bill.
In the ranks of the executive, we are always trying to convince all over the camp of the LR deputies, considered as the necessary auxiliary force. Olivier Véran indicated this Wednesday that the subject had not been raised in the Council of Ministers. An exceptional Council of Ministers could however endorse its use.
Elisabeth Borne stormed with optimism on Tuesday, judging to have “a solid majority” for her reform.
• Motion of censure
Provided for by the Constitution, the motion of censure allows the National Assembly to overthrow the government. This is the only way to prevent the adoption of a text after recourse to 49.3.
It must be submitted within 24 hours by at least 10% of the deputies, ie 57. It is then debated in the days that follow. To be adopted, the motion of censure must receive an absolute majority, ie 287 votes.
The National Rally and La France insoumise have already indicated that they each want to file one in the event of recourse to 49.3; without much hope of success. More than ten have been tabled since the start of the new legislature – including a last one on February 18 by Marine Le Pen after the end of the debates on retirement at 64 – and none have been adopted so far.
But the deal changes if political camps join forces. LR deputies are working on the tabling of a cross-partisan motion of censure signed by elected leftists and deputies from the LIOT group.
It then remains to convince the deputies very largely to reach the 287 votes necessary to have the motion of censure adopted. This figure is achievable if the LRs vote for it in their very large majority.
But Olivier Marleix, the president of the LR deputies, already warned in a group meeting on Tuesday “that it was not acceptable for deputies to co-sign a motion of censure with people on the left or centrists”.
• The shared initiative referendum
The shared initiative referendum is a complex procedure which has never succeeded since its introduction in the Constitution in 2008 – which did not prevent the Communist deputy Stéphane Peu from raising this hypothesis on Tuesday evening on BFMTV.
According to this elected representative from Seine-Saint-Denis, at least 185 parliamentarians would be ready to table a bill for a shared initiative referendum (RIP) in order to block the pension reform.
This constitutional provision provides for the possibility of organizing a popular consultation on a bill “on the initiative of a fifth of the members of Parliament”, i.e. at least 185 of the 925 parliamentarians and “supported by a tenth of the electors”, i.e. 4.87 million people, whose signatures must be collected within 9 months.
The last attempt at a RIP failed in 2019 on the question of the privatization of Aéroports de Paris. In 2019, only one million people had signed up.
But not enough to dampen the enthusiasm on the left. The PS vice-president of the National Assembly Valérie Rabault said she “believes a lot” in the blocking of the pension reform by a RIP. The rebellious Mathilde Panot explained that this constitutional provision was “in reflection” on the left.
